i know that some people new to plo8/nlo8 get concerned if they have long break-even (more or less) stretches. i am currently in a 2k hand break even (actually, down 1 bi) stretch, and i just want to describe it so that people know what it looks like.

looking over the hands and my notes, i'm playing fairly well in non-showdown pots. where i'm getting hammered is the all-in pots.

looking over the hands and my notes, i'm playing fairly well overall, but i'm getting hammered is the all-in pots (esp. when ahead).

AA4T < AATJ (scooped)

AA7x < AA4x (quartered)

nut flush on high board < gutshot straight flush draw + 2pr (all in on turn versus lagtard -- 90/10)

flopped boat < trips with overs (5 outs twice versus lagtard -- 80/20)

two hands in which i got it all in with the nut low and better high on turn and villain rivered a higher pair on one hand and a better 2 pair on another. this shifted the values from 3/4 for me to 1/4 for me.

i lost two hands against a massive calling station. one in which i had 2nd nut str8 with a flush draw and a low draw. villain had the nuts and i whiffed. in another hand, i had the typical nfd+nld versus top set against this guy (he would have done the same thing with a wide range). 55/45, and i was scooped.

on top of all of this, my freerolls are not hitting, so i'm splitting a lot of big pots.

i have scooped some hands, but they've included hands like flopped quads versus flopped top boat. i'm getting a ton of value off of most of my marginal hands -- usually knowing where i'm at. this is what has kept me from being down more than one buy-in.


summary

i suppose that the two big points from this post (if i can find any) are:

1) your win rate over relatively short sample of hands (like 2k) is largely dependent on how you do in the all-ins. maybe this is a master-of-the-obvious statement, but it's a bit more subtle in big bet o8. first, there are a lot of split pots. if you don't scoop some of these and end up splitting or getting quartered, it adds up really quickly. furthermore, you rarely get 80/20 or 90/10 hands in big bet o8, and the way these hands go are a huge variance predictor.

2) stealing and value betting marginal hands can keep you afloat while you're fading the negative variance on your all-in pots. interestingly, i find that i have to adjust my stealing rate quite a bit depending on the table conditions and my table image. versus tables/players that are calling a lot, i steal MUCH less but value bet much more. at tight tables, i steal a lot more, but call fewer raises and have higher requirements for value-betting. furthermore, even against calling stations, you can start to steal if you have the right image.

for example, in another hand versus the lagtard player who got it in against me at 90/10, i flopped 2nd boat and bet pot. he floated. on the turn i bet again, and he folded 3rd-nut boat face up (he hit it on the turn). i had it in my notes that he had shown that he would get it all in with any trips, but i guess i had spooked him on the 90/10 hand. of course, after that i stole against him on every scare card, so i was able to float quite a few flops and turns and make some money back from him. this is just an example of how one can adapt their style to their table image -- even in a crazy game. fwiw, i can maintain attention on this type of stuff on up to 6 tables, but after that it's just autopilot most of the time.

anyway, hope this helps.

I've been going through the same type of run and I think you have stated very well the best way to counteract the variance bug.

I push aces all the time, but this weekend tried playing the monster aa hands like aa2w and aa3w a little slower since I'm almost never getting called. Got stacked once when my NLD/NFD missed vs 2 pair and then the kicker was when my aa34ds lost when I pushed a flop of 789 (2 of my suit) to run into A299. Since then, well, if you see me at the table and I am pushing it means I have aaxx. If I did not push then you can safely put me on a non-aa hand (altho it could be an aahh hand). Anyway, aa hands are my bread and butter but as Kuso said you only need to lose a couple of the preflop pushes in a short period of time to take a hurtin'.

No, I read it right. I just ended up going off on my own rant, but the main point being that when you start playing a new game and get off to a bad start, it's difficult to tell the difference between running bad and playing bad right away. Which could lead you to developing some bad habits.

The Stars/Full Tilt comparison was in all games encompassing a large sample. Stars is nitty with a mix of stations and that's all fine and easily exploitable. Full Tilt, in my experience, is maniacal with a mix of calling stations. People have no fear and everytime you enter a pot, again in just about every game, you're likely to be making a decision for most or all your chips at some point. Then you have to decide whether they're full of it or it's the nuts....and it's just stunning how often it's the nuts.