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Pocket Aces 2 times in 4 hands - Live Poker Forums

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Pocket Aces 2 times in 4 hands

Want to know the odds of AA vs KK? What was the "expected value" when I reraised all in? Come find out!

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Pocket Aces 2 times in 4 hands

Postby digital scar » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:09 pm

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Postby TightWad » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:13 pm

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Postby T-Rod » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:37 pm

Not sure the odds, but yesterday after playing 300 tight, smart hands I finally got AA for the first time at a LAGy table. I reraised the preflop bet X4, another guy reraised me, and we both went all in to my great delight.

He had AA too.
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Postby Rhapsodus » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:15 pm

Well,
I think this is actually a complicated problem because of the possible combinations that 4 hands can wield. I can calculate the odds of AA hitting two times in a row fairly easily.
((4/52 * 3/51)^2) == 2.04746013 × 10^-5 which is pretty damn rare.

However, there are more combinations involving AA in 4 hands.
I will label the starting hands as A - B - C - D where A is the first hand dealt. I will assume that the letters beginning with ! are the ones that got dealt the AA. Meaning a Hit.

So according to my little chart, with 4 hands there are 6 different ways the hole cards can land with AA twice.

Case 1 !A - !B - C - D
Case 2 !A - B - !C - D
Case 3 !A - B - C - !D
Case 4 A - !B - !C - D
Case 5 A - !B - C - !D
Case 6 A - B - !C - !D

Out of 4 sets of hole cards how many possible combinations are there?
(52*51)^4.

Well in 1 set there are 52*51 combinations. So 52/51 ^ 4 are how many combinations that exist in 4 hands.

So out of 4.94645519 × 10^13 only 6 wield combinations with AA.
But there are 12 ways to be dealt an AA. So 12 * 6 = 48.

Possible AA hands:
As Ah Ac Ah Ad As Ah Ad
As Ac Ac As Ad Ah Ah As
As Ad Ac Ad Ad Ac Ah Ac

Putting it altogether...

48 / 4.94645519 × 10^13 == 9.7039189 × 10^-13

Intuitively speaking, in 1 hole card deal there are 2652 possible hole card combinations. And 12 of them are AA. Raise this to the 4th power because you have 4 combinations, and your sample set will be even smaller than this due to the ordering.
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AA twice in a row

Postby Acidjoe » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:35 am

So AA twice in a row is rare?

How about losing both of them back to back.

Just finished a sng at prima with AA all in lost to 88 when he hit trips on the turn

Next hand all in with the 210 left with AA get called by AKo and he straightens.

I'm beginning to think AA isn't what it's cracked up to be. Poker tracker tells me my AA wins 63% of the time for a losing effort.
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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:10 am

Since the odds of getting AA or so small anyways, the chance of getting AA 2 out of 4 hands not that much less likely than getting AA back to back. The numbers I cam up with were 1/48841 of getting AA back to back and 1/46993 of getting AA 2 out of 4.
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Postby kdiddy33 » Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:00 am

Getting aces aren't as important as how you play em.

Yes, you want to get all your chips in the middle with them pre-flop if possible against 1 opponent, but if you are the kind that slow-plays aces sometimes to get action (which I have done myself with mixed results) or you let too many people into the pot with you, you could be in for a sad surprise.

Just some random thoughts.
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