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could I not lose it all?

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could I not lose it all?

Postby briachek » Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:48 pm

This is against a guy that later told me he was a BTP lurker. Do you not raise the river all in fearing quads?

converter isn't working. $50 PLO on stars. We both have near full stacks.

I have AAQ2 ds in the sb.4 limpers to me, I limp, bb checks

Flop is A66 2 clubs which is not one of my suits. I check and hope to get action. It checks around.

Turn is offsuit Jack. I bet $2 and get 1 caller in LP.

River is another offsuit Jack. I bet $4 and he raises max to almost $19. I reraise all in to $47 total and he calls and wins with quad 6's. Any way not to lose it all hear or is not raising all in too weak. He could be pushing AJ or another boat. I have the nut boat and only lose to 2 sets of quads.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:22 pm

It's marginal; however, there's four hands you beat (2 x AJ and 2 x A6) and only two you lose to (JJ and 66) so statistically speaking, if he raises AJ and A6 (which he presumably does) you win more often than you lose.

If you know your opponent is good you should just call, IF the money is deep, once he makes the first raise; the times he's behind he'll fold or call, whereas the times he's ahead he'll make another collosal raise and you'll end up paying out 3x the amount. Here, with limited-sized stacks, I think you were correct to shove it all in on the river. Unlucky.

I once saved myself a big chunk on a table when I flopped 245 with 55, I bet and picked up two callers, turn 4, I checked they both checked, river 3, I bet and my good, tricky opponent raised me the maximum. I know he wouldn't have called the flop bet (usually) with 2 pair, and it's unlikely he'd raise here with the bottom boat (22). He certainly wouldn't raise with a straight. If he was bluffing, or on 22, he was good enough to fold for a re-raise. If he had the other likely hand, 44, he'd re-raise me again and I would struggle to lay down 55 without a showdown and end up shipping a massive stack of chips. We both started the hand with $400-odd so it could've escalated into an utter horror show. Anyhow, I just called and he showed 44. I should've been pissed about the one-outer but at the time I was elated that I'd saved myself about $300 by reading the situation right. That said, if we only both had another $80 at the end of it, I'd probably just have sucked it up and pushed it in, because he then couldn't re-raise me and would be more likely to call off a weaker boat. That was more like the situation you found yourself in, I guess, so pushing seems OK.

I sometimes raise AAds in the SB, although I admit as a rule it's generally a bad move to escalate the pot out of position preflop in PLO. That mighta got rid of the 66 hand :)...

Put it this way... if he had AJ, and you'd only called, you'd have felt pretty dumb, right?

Monk
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Postby Hofstra » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:40 pm

The last two weeks I lost five times with top boat against quads, which led me to think a bit about when to slow down with this hand. I'm most careful in the situation which you describe, where the pot is unraised and you flop top boat, say on a K33 or A33 board. If there is action on the flop, then I don't worry too much since almost everyone will slowplay quads in order to let others catch up (but beware the caller in the middle). But if someone checks/calls along and suddenly raises on the river like there is no tomorrow, I try not to lose my stack, unless I know that he will do this with 2nd boat...

I think that roughly the same principles apply as in the case of nut flush versus possible straight flush; against the average $50 player you can't be overly cautious, since the chance of him paying you off with a lesser hand is so much larger than being up against that particular hand.

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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon Jul 11, 2005 4:03 pm

Agreed. The main issue is if it's a deep stack game and your RE-raise opens up potential for a full pot RE-RE-raise, it might be best to hang fire as the losses far outweigh the possible gains on the off-chance he calls.
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A licky boom boom down.
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