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Do these bet amounts look like Im bluffing? - Live Poker Forums

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Do these bet amounts look like Im bluffing?

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Do these bet amounts look like Im bluffing?

Postby iceman5 » Sun Mar 16, 2008 11:20 am

I got called down today by a guy with 44 and still cant believe it. After the hand I said something about him giving me no respect and he said my bet amounts were weird and told him I didnt have anything. Heres the hand:

He limps the cutoff. I raise to $10 on the button. He calls.

Pot $23. Flop [Qh][9s][3s]. He checks, I bet $15 ..He calls.
Pot $53. Turn [Jh]. He checks, I bet $36. He calls.
Pot $125. River [Jc]. He checks, I bet $83. He calls with his 44.

Whats so weird about my bet amounts?
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Sun Mar 16, 2008 11:25 am

15 + 36 + 83 = 134
1 + 3 + 4 = 7
7 = a prime number
a prime number = you're bluffing


????
Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby Xaston » Sun Mar 16, 2008 11:28 am

2^p-1 = mersenne prime
Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby k3nt » Sun Mar 16, 2008 4:14 pm

If I had AA KK or AQ on that flop I'm betting way more than 2/3 pot because of the draws. I would also probably check behind on the river because I would be wondering wtf he could have. Depending on the opponent's tendencies, I could also be worried about something like JT that missed the draw but caught runner trips. I sure wouldn't be value betting to try to get more from 44-88.
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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Mar 16, 2008 4:22 pm

lol, 15 might look a bit bluffy to some on a draw-heavy board.

At the lower stakes, I was betting something like that typically but felt that on draw-heavy boards, it doesn't get as much credit. So, I bumped it to more like 18.

In substance, I don't really think it matters because both adequately protect your hand (open-enders and flushes aren't going away in any case, and weaker draws shouldn't be calling).

I guess it's really an advantage to bet 15, though, if 44 is going to call you down sometimes.

The river bet also looks kind of vague imo. It's kind of like you're repping maybe JT, but on closer look, it's really either too high for that (not completely easy to call) or too low (putting villain likely on a Q and making a bluff-type bet would be close to full pot).

Turn bet seems pretty standard but could also be a bit higher with all the draws out there. I'd be more inclined to read that as KQ or QT than as AQ or QJ--since the latter are more solid but still have to worry about the flush or JT getting there. KQ or QT might be exercising a little pot control by not betting 40+.

On the flop, I honestly do rather like a 2/3 pot bet in HU pots even on drawy boards, and 2/3 pot is 15.67, so that's pretty close.

Thinking about your bet sizes, while I wouldn't have made it to the river with 44 (unless your flop bet was out of character), I think it's actually the river bet that makes me wonder the most. When I ask myself what hand would bet that way, my spontaneous answer is JT, but then when I look at it, that's kind of a strange JT bet for my taste, as noted above.
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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Mar 16, 2008 4:34 pm

Yeah, I think k3nt and I are on the same page. One reason I do like the 2/3 pot with AQ-AA is that it's completely consistent with a flush draw or JT, both of which I bet the same way. I do bet the turn a bit harder, though, with solid hands that aren't of the type TP + draw.

On the river, I agree completely. I almost surely check behind AQ for the same reasons but would consider maybe 1/3 pot on KK+ since there's a hand (AQ) that can call and lose. I'd probably half-pot JT with the trips and would either full-pot or 1/3-pot boats, depending on what I thought about villain.
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Postby Triple B » Sun Mar 16, 2008 5:15 pm

Don't overthink this. Villain is a station and looks for any reason to call your bets. If he can't think of a good one, he makes something up.
Villain: Why?
Villain: How?
Me: I had a feeling
Villian: Sit in you cretin
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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Mar 16, 2008 6:14 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Sun Mar 16, 2008 6:43 pm

I didnt say I lost the hand. I had QQ. I just couldnt figure out how I could get called down by 44 there and wondered if my bet amounts were that strange. They look perfect to me.
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Postby black_knight6 » Sun Mar 16, 2008 6:59 pm

He's a donk, it has nothing to do with your bets.
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Postby k3nt » Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:30 am

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Postby JimmyJet » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:25 pm

Mekos King (11:56:46 AM): LOL@NVobv
Mekos King (11:57:02 AM): circumstances are all conspiring perfectly
Mekos King (11:57:07 AM): to get ole NV to snuffit
Mekos King (11:57:14 AM): but the salty old tsr just refuses to
Mekos King (11:57:26 AM): goot thing guns are illegal id say
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