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In unknown territorry again with a big draw (PLO $25) - Live Poker Forums

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In unknown territorry again with a big draw (PLO $25)

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In unknown territorry again with a big draw (PLO $25)

Postby MTPaid » Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:44 pm

No read on opponent. He's fairly new to the table. I have no idea what this preflop stupidity from UTG means here.

On the flop, I have no idea why he'd bet so weak if he had a set of Aces on this board so I throw in a healthy c/r. When he shoves I have no doubt he has the set of Aces, but I don't know if he has the nut flush draw too or if he's just an idiot.

Anyone not like the c/r here? And getting around 2 to 1 on a shove, should we really be considering not doing so now?

$0.1/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($26.00)
UTG+1 ($25.95)
CO ($34.75)
BTN ($29.80)
SB ($29.05)
Hero ($27.90)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BB [Kh][Js][Qh][Ks]
UTG calls $0.25 ($25.75), 1 fold, CO calls $0.25 ($34.50), 1 fold, SB raises to $0.75 ($28.20), Hero calls $0.5 ($27.15), UTG raises to $1.25 ($24.50), CO calls $1 ($33.50), SB calls $0.5 ($27.80), Hero calls $0.5 ($26.65)

Flop: [As][Th][3h] ($5, 4 players)
SB checks ($27.80), Hero checks ($26.65), UTG bets $0.5 ($24.25), 1 fold, SB calls $0.5 ($27.30), Hero raises to $6 ($20.65), UTG raises to $20 ($4.25), SB folds ($27.30), Hero ???
Last edited by MTPaid on Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby MBuckler » Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:56 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:02 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
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Postby MBuckler » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:17 pm

board: AsTh3h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KhQhKsJs 48.40% 289,296 2,216
TT**,33**,AA**,AT** 51.60% 308,488 2,216

i honestly think you can narrow his range to that ^^^^

throw in the AA w/ the NFD...

board: AsTh3h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KhQhKsJs 48.25% 288,391 2,246
TT**,33**,AA**,AT**,AhA*h* 51.75% 309,363 2,246


you're still flipping pretty much....it all depends on how much you wanna gamboooooool
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Postby Kuso » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:23 pm

i wouldn't feel bad about getting it all in -- in fact, i think you're about a coinflip vs a set of aces (depends on blockers). if i thought that villain was an uberdonkey who would have a hard time folding a set of aces when i hit my draw, then i might just call the initial flop bet and get made-hand ev (often much higher than drawing ev)... or get good odds to draw again on the turn.
wwcrd?

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Postby MTPaid » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:41 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:22 pm

And just to wrap this hand up.

$0.1/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($26.00)
UTG+1 ($25.95)
CO ($34.75)
BTN ($29.80)
SB ($29.05)
Hero ($27.90)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BB [Kh][Js][Qh][Ks]
UTG calls $0.25 ($25.75), 1 fold, CO calls $0.25 ($34.50), 1 fold, SB raises to $0.75 ($28.20), Hero calls $0.5 ($27.15), UTG raises to $1.25 ($24.50), CO calls $1 ($33.50), SB calls $0.5 ($27.80), Hero calls $0.5 ($26.65)
ImageImageImageImage 43.40% (EV = $0.92)
ImageImageImageImage 56.60% (EV = $1.58)

Flop: [As][Th][3h] ($5, 4 players)
SB checks ($27.80), Hero checks ($26.65), UTG bets $0.5 ($24.25), 1 fold, SB calls $0.5 ($27.30), Hero raises to $6 ($20.65), UTG raises to $20 ($4.25), SB folds ($27.30), Hero goes all-in $26.65 ($0.00), UTG goes all-in $4.75 ($0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 51.50% (EV = $2.40)
ImageImageImageImage 48.50% (EV = $1.68)

Turn: [5h] ($55, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 80.00% (EV = $45.12)
ImageImageImageImage 20.00% (EV = $10.90)

River: [Jd] ($55, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 100.00% (EV = $56.40)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: $55
Hero shows: [Kh][Js][Qh][Ks]
UTG shows: [Ac][Ah][Ts][Ad]

Hero wins $54.2 ( won +$26.3 )
UTG lost -$26.00
CO lost -$1.25
SB lost -$1.75


I'm assuming I would have been a dog, although not a sizable one, if he hadn't been blocking a lot of his own redraw outs.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
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