No reads on the villain...Who likes my flop raise, and what do you think of him insta potting the A on the turn?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($32.70)
UTG 1 ($116.25)
MP1 ($147.45)
Hero ($101.85)
MP3 ($118.35)
CO ($13.80)
BTN ($26.00)
BB ($39.00)

Pre-flop: ($1, 8 players) Hero is MP2 [Kd]
2 folds, MP1 raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, 4 folds, MP1 calls $7

Flop: [2d][Jc] ($21, 2 players)
MP1 bets $11, Hero raises to $33, MP1 calls $22

Turn: ($87, 2 players)
MP1 bets $87,

I like the raise, I think him potting the turn sucks. I hate to put him squarely on AJ but it seems about the only thing that would make sense unless he has a set. I mean it's not a blocking bet and he's obv not folding to a raise since he has hardly any money left. As much as it sucks we really aren't beating much on the turn except a bluff.

I snap call this

Youre obviously afraid of the ace so lets rewind the hand.

The guy raises that naoorws his hand somwhat especially in full ring.
He calls a reraise. This narrows it further.

OK, onto the flop. Almost nobody leads into the preflop raiser with a set. If he did happen to do it, hes going to reraise the flop all in at least 50% of the time. So leading and then calling makes a set very unlikely.

A2 and A9 are almost never in the standard range based on preflop action.

He could have AJ of course, but why would he open push the turn if he had AJ? Thats pretty stupid. I think theres at least 75% chance he is betting the scare card hoping you cant call.

I think hes more likely to have [Td] or even [Jd] than have an ace.

People just dont make bets like this that they know you wont be able to call very often...when they want you to call. If he had AJ or a set he would CRAI almost every time.

PS..I think heros flop raise is sufficient. He only has $58 left after the raise and the pot is $87 when villain calls. No need to go higher than that.

Refer to this post I made yesterday.
forum/viewtopic.php?t=30569

Look at villains sudden monster turn bet out of nowhere (stop and go) when the scariest card in the deck fell. I called , he didnt have a 9 and I was WAY ahead.

I never like responses to these types of hands that say either "fistpump call" or "snap call" cuz you really should put some more thought into the hand when it's a decision for all your chips. Ice later elaborated, so it wasn't really a "snap call".

I think people just like to say snap call TBH.

So if we think he's full of it (and I totally agree here), are we just calling or are we shoving the turn.

If he has Q[d] J[d] he calls that turn shove.

But will he fold QQ and TT?