This is the Stars $50K ($55 buyin) last night. We are right around the bubble.

Blinds 400/800 (75 ante)
No read except that neither one of us has been very active since I've been at the table which isn't all that long.
BB has 22,758 after posting
I start with 12, 685

At an 8 handed table, I raise to 2100 UTG+1 with [Jc]. Folds around to BB who calls.

[7c][3d] Pot 5200
BB checks, I stupidly bet 3200 when I clearly know that nobody is folding if there is no A or K on the flop and BB calls.

Pot 11,600
I have 7385 left and BB has 18258.
Ok, there's my K. When BB checks, I'm shoving and he'll fold because I have to have AK.
BUT, BB now bets 2400 and I have to decide what that bet means and if he understands that it just about commits him to calling my shove now.

So, WTF does that crap bet mean?
- He fears the K with a pair and wants to see the showdown cheap so he donks, but will call a shove?
- He fears the K with a pair and wants to see the showdown cheap so he donks, but will fold to a shove for only 5K more getting almost 3-1?
- He was actually just calling with overs and hit the K?

DaFish, if I could sum up what I believe my opponents are thinking about my range now it goes a little something like "well, his range is probably 99+ and AQ+.......but mostly AQ+.....and hardly ever 99+" Why? I don't know. Maybe because AK is dealt more ways and therefore more often than any single pp. So they're making the mistake of thinking that since it's the most often dealt hand in that range that this is the hand you're going to have the most often. Which is not true because say there are 5 possibilities of something happening and one is 25% but all the rest are less than that. It will be the thing that happens the most often, but not what happens most of the time. I'm playing in a couple of tourneys as I write this so who knows if I'm making any sense.

Beavis is right. I'm stacking people with pocket 9's on J-hi flops. It used to be that if I had an overpair on the flop and someone got a little aggressive I would have to fear sets. Now, most the time it's just a pair...or the nuts as they see it. Which is good for me when I have a big pair of course, but bad when I have AK no matter what flops.

This is something more recent. I haven't seen it much before the last few months. Maybe a new trend like everyone going nuts 3-betting out of the blinds about a year or so back, which I actually don't see as much anymore and it has seemed to become a little easier to steal blinds again.

Anyway, yes, you're going to get them with your bigger pairs, but I was specifically just talking about your big Aces and how AK loses value now if you have to take a flop with it and have chips remaining to be bet. This is why I made the statement that I feel like I'm playing AK strongly preflop (in non-all-in situations) almost just to balance my range for when I have big pairs instead of because it's a strong hand.

Almost like, sometimes you gotta give 'em what they expect so you can hit them with what they don't expect.

Just don't be bluffing post-flop without A or K on board unless you want to play for a stack now.