I guess from his point of view he isn't really worried about me. If he ends up HU there would be a $110 or so pot for which he would have paid $43, so against my limp-calling range he is fine.

But pushing over a total of 3 players with AQo in an EP raised pot for 100BB's+ is asking for trouble IMHO. You are likely to get at least one caller in my experience and that caller is going to be well ahead of your range (as AK is a major part of their range and the rest is probably medium-high pairs). The $25 already in the pot may not make up for a $100+ push.

But that's just my gut feeling from pushing AQo a lot when short. It just sucks so bad against common calling ranges.

Even though it’s Sunday morning and I don’t have my maths head on, I guess we had better run some numbers (but we need to remember that even if it's +EV to push, a call may still be better).


First the limper (me). My limp range is pretty wide so far as you know. Let's say top 25%. I am a short stack donk, so am quite likely to call with the top 10% of hands. Both the above are wrong but you wouldn't know that and they are reasonable assumptions.
AQo is 50/50 vs top 10% (AKo has a 15% edge which is why AKo is an OK +EV push here even full stacked).

UTG+1 raiser. This is likely to be a decent hand. CR Donks at this level will usually make the mistake of not adjusting their opening range to take account of an EP limper, and a typical $200 max's EP opening range at UTG+1 is maybe top 13%. If he calls with the top half of this (reasonable assumption) then you are a 20% dog to him (3:2).

The cold caller will have a wider range - let's say 20%. Let's say he calls off his top 1/3 - ie 7%. You are 15% dog to his range.

So working thru the numbers let's see how often you get called and by whom:

Shorty will call you 40% of the time (with top 10%)
Raiser will call you 50% of the time (with top 6%)
Cold Caller will call you 33% of the time (with top 7%)
There is $25 already in the pot and you have pushed in for $102.


Chance that no-one will call
60%x50%x66% = 20%
Result EV+$25

Chance that all will call
40%x50%x33% = 7%
Your chance to win is 15% (plus 7% of the time you are beaten only by Shorty and win the side-pot, so you have 22% equity in that)
Result – equity in main pot $175 = $26 +
equity in $177 side pot = £39
Total equity $65. Cost $102. EV -$37

Chance Shorty calls and no-one else
40%x50%x66% = 13%
Your chance to win 50%.
Pot $109. Equity in Pot $55, Cost $43. EV+$12

Chance Raiser calls and no-one else
60%x50%x66%= 20%
Your chance to win 41%
Pot $189. Your equity in pot $77.5. Cost $102. EV -$24.50

Chance Cold Caller calls and no-one else
60%x50%x33% = 10%
Your chance to win 42.5%
Pot $189 Your equity in pot $80. Cost $102. EV -$22

Chance S+R call
40%x50%x66% = 13%
Your chance to win 25% (with +16% chance of sidepot)
Main pot is $144, your equity in it is $36.
Side pot is $118, your equity in it is $48
Total equity $84. Cost $102. EV -$18

Chance S+CC call
40%x50%x33% = 7%
Your chance to win 26% (with16.5% chance of sidepot)
Main pot is $144, your equity in it is $37.
Side pot is $118, your equity in it is $50
Total equity $87. Cost $102. EV -$15

Chance R+CC call
60%x50%x33%= 10%
Your chance to win 22%
Pot $311. Your equity in it is $68. Cost $102. EV-$34

That does add up to 100% btw J

So
+0.2x25 = +5
-0.07%x37 = -2.6
+0.13x12 = +1.6
-0.2x24.5 = -4.9
-0.1x22 = -2.2
-0.13x18 = -2.3
-0.07x15 = -1.1
-0.1x34 = -3.4

Total EV of push -$9.9.

Now the above is oversimplified as one of the big stacks could push all in and force the other out, but when that does happen the ranges of the pusher will tend towards the very top end of pusher’s range (of if post flop to really have hit it hard) so I wouldn’t expect this to help your overall EV very much.

As I said, I think a call is better for button here.

And now my head hurts

March to date:


Last 30 days (top line is Prima, lower one Party)


Choo Choo!

Well I've been sick (chest infection) and very very busy at work last 3 weeks. I have played a bit in that period but have basically been breakeven until a couple of days ago -playing when sick/stressed is never clever..

Made about $2300 in March (all at Party) and have now switched to playing the 50//£1 games at Will Hill (I deposited direct with my UK debit card to avoid Neteller $ conversion chargesx2 from now on). Also after the Arctic Poker debacle ($2100 stuck there that it looks like I may well have to write off), I wanted to play somewhere and keep my money somewhere that is absolutely safe (and you can't get safer than Will Hill).

RB/bonuses work out about 40% I think, which is fine...

Bizarrely Will Hill was the first online poker site I ever deposited on (maybe 4 years ago), when I plucked up the courage to put down £20 and started playing $5 Limit SnG's...fortunately I ran good so have never had to use my 'real world' money for poker since...

So we are almost 30k hands into the new shortstacking era (all at $1/2 6 max or equivalent) and I am running at just under 3PTBB/100. I'm not sure whether much better than that is achievable short (I haven't seen long-term win rates posted for a really good shortstacker) although as you can see from my stats I am adopting a rather odd 'counter-punching' strategy that involves a lot of limping. I played for 3 months and maybe 50k hands short last year as I was developing the strategy and managed 2PTBB/100 then. Maybe as I improve I can squeeze it up to 4PTBB/100 or so, but it may be easier just to move up to the $400 tables...



I play 4-6 tables and have been making c. $65/hr.

Anyway let's keep going in April and see how we do...fingers crossed to get at least some of the Arctic money back too...

explain the microgaming problem...what site were you at?

er 27 skins and all player monies in them (probably around $6m) got frozen when Microgaming pulled the licence from a big payment processor called Tusk. We had never heard of them but apparently they were a Microgamin main licensee who sub-licensed the 27 rooms that a lot of us played on. I was on Arctic and had $2100+ there when the shit hit the fan.

After a month of hearing nothing, a liquidator has been appointed and we might get a few cents (or if we are lucky a bit more) in the $1 back once he has had his fees out and payed off higher ranking creditors...

Microgaming seem to have washed their hands of it hoping it won't affect their reputation/rest of their network if their players get hung out to dry for $6m..

So basically none of the Microgaming skins seem to keep your money in trust bank accounts, they have no decent system for making sure their licensees can't just go bust (and they will walk away if they do) so you are a total moron if you continue to play with any significant funds on a Microgaming-powered site (well except for Ladbrokes, but as they charge 5.99% rake in cash games, you would be a moron for other reasons for playing there)

As you can see I'm playing an extra 3% looser than normal (all added LP limps mainly) - that is because WH is more passive and the players more weak-tight than at, say, Party.

Been very busy so not put many hands in so far - made about $350 in Will Hill bonus and RB on top...so I'm happy enough..

no show in the MTT's - I really wasn't up for it when Sunday night rolled around..nevermind, the shortstacking is going fine..






Did I mention that Party players are really bad?