by gsdavid » Wed May 21, 2008 9:05 am
I'm not sure I like it. Without you having history of 3betting light(so that Kxx board hits you like 20% of time) or him being a floater I would not double barrel here. I think too much of his calling range already folded flop so now you are facing sets, Kx that is not going to fold at any point, Tx (JTs, QTs, T9, T8s), AA, TT. I do like how we have 4 outs to the nuts and possibly 3 more to a high card(either we try to get to cheap showdown with Q on river or shove Ax). For starters I like double barreling flops where I know that villain is likely peal but is not creative enough to turn his made pp into bluff. I don't think you get a fold 33% of time on this board- your equity of draws of some 15%.
I mean, yeah you need a fold here about 20% of time with that bet size and that draw to be break even. I just doubt that there are many hands that are calling this flop and folding to turn bet. If his entire range is KK+,TT,33,AQs,KQs,QTs+,JTs,T8s+ , JJ, QQ
He has 9 set combos, 3 KQ combos that are never folding.
If we assume he floated SCs, then there are 2 QTs, 3 JTs, 3 T9s, 3 T8s combos + 2AQs, 6 JJ 6 QQ that he could be potentially be floating us with.
So there are 12 combos that will not fold but most likely will not shove turn for most part.
If he is floating JJ and QQ on that board(and he should if he elects to float Tx) then there are about 25 combos that could potentially fold turn.
So yeah given math this seems a good double barrel spot due to Tx giving you a good number of SC's that could float.
Still, this is not a flop that I would double barrel often since we dont know his range nor how if he floats or not.