Also posted this one in my journal w/ results but don't cheat.

Dealt [4s]

I raise it up to $16 on the button 4 handed. Good player calls from the blind.

FLOP$34
[Jc][3d]

He checks. I usually bet here but I feel like I've been getting out of line this session with cbets.. I decide to check, possibly make him throw out a bluff.

TURN$34
[Jc][3d]

I have third pair with a gutter. He bets $24. I decide to call hoping I have the best hand. If not, I think I can bluff a club river. (thoughts?)

RIVER$82
[Jc][3d]

He bets $65. A pretty strong value bet. I raise to $182.


Thoughts?

He's a good player...so he could have a flush, or he could be representing a flush and trying to steal. Problem is, he could be trying to steal with a hand that already beats you. I would have probably folded on the turn. I assume this is 2/4 since you raised to 16? He bet 2/3 of the pot on the turn and 3/4 of the pot on the river.

Hmmmmmm....I just don't know. I suppose it depends on what you think the likelihood is that he had a hand that would hit a flush (Axs, suited connector, etc.), and whether or not you can push him off of a weaker hand like top pair or middle pair with a decent kicker. I don't think you win by calling on the river, so I do think it is a raise or fold situation.

You have bigger balls then I do. But it is a great play. The only way I think he can call is if he has a flush. If he pushes then I would have to give him credit for the nut flush.

A "good player" would lay down a set on that board the way you played it.

Any other thoughts on this play? Anyone?

Kenny,

If the roles are reversed the way that hand was played you are not worried about the flush?

Do you think he is bluffing the run and the river? What do you think he will lay down? TP?

You don’t think you’re ahead do you?

If you call the turn planning to bluff a club river, then go ahead and bluff that club river.

The only thing I don't like is that you say you "feel like you've been getting out of hand with your continuation bets." If the other player is watching, then he'll probably have you down as a guy who almost always CBs. That's a perfect flop to CB 4 handed with any two hoping he doesn't have an ace and will lay it down. So then you don't CB, that's gotta make him suspicious you have a big hand. But now the turn brings all kinds of draws and you don't raise. The way you've played it, you can't have a flopped set or two pair here. So the only real hand you can have is the runner-runner flush. And what two clubs would you check behind with on that flop, when you c-bet almost everything? So (if I'm thinking this way) I'm putting you on the miracle flush or air, and widening my calling range.

On the other hand I'm probably overthinking this. As usual. I too often assume my opponents are thinking at least 1 level higher than they actually are.