I was reviewing the big wins and losses of ArmourOfGod (by far he has the most hands in my PTO db), and this hand came up as one of his big losers despite having the nut low.

Some I have three questions:

1) Is ArmourOfGod anyone on this site?

2) Is there any point that AOG should get away from this hand, or does he just have to take his lumps in a situation like this? He lost about $12 of his $32 stack.

3) What about the other players (they eighthed the low)?

***** Hand History for Game 2391815424 *****
$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Tuesday, July 19, 20:47:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 36853 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: ArmourOfGod ( $32.50 )
Seat 7: Confiscator ( $24.25 )
Seat 6: whatajoker ( $4.75 )
Seat 9: Slaban ( $24.33 )
Seat 5: DETROZVPD ( $9.55 )
Seat 4: craigster69 ( $44.10 )
Seat 10: syld941 ( $23.37 )
Seat 1: rusosstreet ( $12.30 )
Seat 3: RockingTreys ( $25.45 )
Seat 8: goliathb ( $25 )
DETROZVPD posts small blind [$0.10].
Confiscator posts big blind [$0.25].
goliathb posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
goliathb checks.
Slaban calls [$0.25].
syld941 folds.
rusosstreet calls [$0.25].
ArmourOfGod raises [$1.60].
RockingTreys folds.
craigster69 folds.
DETROZVPD calls [$1.50].
Confiscator folds.
goliathb calls [$1.35].
Slaban calls [$1.35].
rusosstreet calls [$1.35].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2h, 5s, 4d ]
DETROZVPD checks.
goliathb checks.
Slaban checks.
rusosstreet checks.
ArmourOfGod checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
DETROZVPD checks.
goliathb checks.
Slaban bets [$3].
rusosstreet is all-In.
ArmourOfGod is all-In.
DETROZVPD folds.
goliathb is all-In.
Slaban is all-In.
** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]
Slaban shows [ 5d, 6c, Th, Ad ] a straight, two to six.
Slaban shows 5,4,3,2,A for low.
rusosstreet shows [ 4c, Qd, 3h, As ] a straight, ace to five.
rusosstreet shows 5,4,3,2,A for low.
ArmourOfGod shows [ Ac, 7c, Jd, 2s ] a straight, ace to five.
ArmourOfGod shows 5,4,3,2,A for low.
goliathb shows [ Tc, 4h, Ah, 8h ] a straight, ace to five.
goliathb shows 5,4,3,2,A for low.
ArmourOfGod wins $3.75 from side pot #3 with a straight, ace to five.
ArmourOfGod wins Lo ($3.75) from side pot #3 with 5,4,3,2,A.
goliathb wins $0.34 from side pot #2 with a straight, ace to five.
ArmourOfGod wins $0.33 from side pot #2 with a straight, ace to five.
goliathb wins Lo ($0.34) from side pot #2 with 5,4,3,2,A.
ArmourOfGod wins Lo ($0.33) from side pot #2 with 5,4,3,2,A.
Slaban wins $17.82 from side pot #1 with a straight, two to six.
Slaban wins Lo ($5.94) from side pot #1 with 5,4,3,2,A.
goliathb wins Lo ($5.94) from side pot #1 with 5,4,3,2,A.
ArmourOfGod wins Lo ($5.94) from side pot #1 with 5,4,3,2,A.
Slaban wins $24.25 from the main pot with a straight, two to six.
rusosstreet wins Lo ($6.06) from the main pot with 5,4,3,2,A.
Slaban wins Lo ($6.06) from the main pot with 5,4,3,2,A.
goliathb wins Lo ($6.07) from the main pot with 5,4,3,2,A.
ArmourOfGod wins Lo ($6.06) from the main pot with 5,4,3,2,A.


Any and all comments are welcome.

Pushing all in on the turn is moronic. The only players who'll call will be splitting the pot, and there's an excellent chance that someone has a 6 in hand to win the high. Awful play. Calling all-in with the wheel is equally poor, as it's clear the best that'll happen is you'll split the low 2 or 3 ways and lose high to whoever has the 6 (or 67) straight. You'll get your money back at best. Most of these players should've folded. I guess this is why omaha can be so profitable.

Unless you hold the wheel low with a flush draw, or a set, or at least a 6-high straight, you won't be making any money by putting chips in on the turn here.

I don't think the player you mentioned is a member of this site, whenever I've seen him play he plays extremely fast and loose. Is he a winner in your database then?

Monk
xxxxx

Thanks for analysis, Monk. It really clarifies how to play this situation for me.

As for ArmourOfGod... yes, he is a big winner in my db. 3000 hands, 50PTBB/100, VP$IP 32 (tight side of semi-loose in these games), Showdown 22%, W$SD 58%. His aggression is just 1.4 -- nothing out of the ordinary imho.

He would probably be at around 60PTBB/100 save for one session. I watched in awe as he seemingly fell apart and lost over $100 (about 4 or 5 buy-ins) in that session. I imagine that either someone else was playing, he was on tilt, or he was drunk (my vote is for drunk). The plays that this otherwise big winner was making were truly shocking during that session.

[edited for spelling]

I agree with monk pushing the turn without a 6 or the flush re-draw is just stupid. The best think that AOG can hope for is to get 1/4ed by the short stacks, which is still going to leave him with less money then just folding.

I have seen this phenomenon a lot in 25PL and call it "when a good hand flops (in this case turns, pun intended) bad". I have seen many bad player who can’t fold a good A2 or AA2 when the flop is 258. To me it looks like AOG has that a little of that here.

I have also played with AOG and have him a winner over around 3K hands but I wouldn't try to model your game after him. I have seen him do some things that made my stomach churn (like re-raising second set on a 2 flush 2 low board). He is a good player but I am not sure that he would be beating any level higher then 25PL (not saying that I would be either but I hope to eventually get there).

I would think that it's nigh on impossible to record more than 20 PTO BB's/100 over the long term (30k+ hands). Perhaps in the $25 buyins it might be, but in higher games I think not. Winrates should be slightly higher in omaha because it's an easier game for the best players to win at than NLHE, and it's practically impossible to win more than 15 PTBB/100 in no limit games (or again, at least, NL games above the smallest buyins). Anything over 10 PTO BB/100 is good going, in the long term.

Bare in mind that nobody you have in your database has anything like a representative BB/100 figure, if the player with the most hands has only 3000. 10k hands is next to nothing, but might give a vague indication, 20k is a more accurate representation, but I'd think you'd want more than 30k to have a really accurate figure. I have a player on 40 PTOBB/100 for PLO in my database with 2k hands, he's a good player but the figure is meaningless. I've been losing on the tables in the last month and I suspect that I've probably played 5k hands+; long-term my PLO BB/100 figure is about 35 or so (which'd be about 17 or 18 PTO BB/100). However, it's true that the $25 buyins are very weak so I'd say perhaps 20-25 PTO BB/100 might be possible for a good player who makes few mistakes, but I have no evidence for that figure.

If you want a real suggestion about when numbers of hands are significant, here's an interesting point as to just how long term it can be: I'm a long term winner at Cryptologic and Pokerstars (a loose site and a tight-ish one) at PLO, yet (although I don't have the exact figures) I believe I may be, in my lifetime, a losing player (not including bonuses) at Party/Empire (another fairly loose site), which is over about 18 months. I've no idea how many hands I've played there but I suspect it's maybe 15k hands or so (most of which has been this year). I've got 8k Party/Empire hands in my database this year (that's just the ones I've been able to download, don't think it's everything) and I've lost $400 in that period. It's something I've been trying to figure out for so long, although I suspect the real answer may just be variance - including NL, i guess i've played 25-30k hands there and am maybe somewhere around break even, yet I win everywhere else, tighter and looser sites, in all the different games I play. I guess because those hands are spread out over 18 months or so it feels like I can't win there and never will, but perhaps it's just that it's possible (if extremely rare) for even this number of hands to not give a representative sample of play. Given I win at tighter and looser sites there's no real reason for it, so I guess there's a slim chance that the long term is a lot longer than you or I might think.

Suffice to say, 3k hands is nothing, especially on a crazy, variable player who sometimes does odd things - I guess he has a high-variance game and you'd want 4 or 5 times that number of hands before you can read any significance at all on his stats, and maybe 5-10 times the number of hands for a probable accurate winrate.

Monk
xxxxx

Well, when not in bizarro world, AOG seems to be a prime nut peddler. 30k hands might take a while, but I will certainly keep you updated.

Personally, I think 40-50 PTBB/100 is sustainable over the long term if you nut peddle in $25 PLO8. OK, so it isn't the most interesting game in town, but it seems to pay consistently.

Anyway, my brief peak into $100 PLO8 seems to suggest that 20 PTBB/100 would be a great result. There are still donks, but they don't seem quite as willing to part with their money.

Does anyone have bigger or better PLOL8 than I do? If so, please share!