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When to let go - Live Poker Forums

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When to let go

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When to let go

Postby Kuso » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:00 pm

Here is a hand that I observed on Party $25 PLO8 (converter not working):

***** Hand History for Game 2411662160 *****
$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Saturday, July 23, 17:27:31 EDT 2005
Table Table 36748 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: NMGambler ( $28.48 )
Seat 2: ryder13 ( $29.05 )
Seat 3: tcouscous ( $17.90 )
Seat 4: wilkenbob ( $42.14 )
Seat 5: vedis123 ( $23.60 )
Seat 6: scans ( $32.90 )
Seat 7: KidMarley ( $28.87 )
Seat 9: Chinrest ( $14.20 )
Seat 10: aDutchboy ( $20.52 )
Seat 8: BROR11 ( $14.72 )
KidMarley posts small blind [$0.10].
BROR11 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Chinrest calls [$0.25].
aDutchboy calls [$0.25].
NMGambler calls [$0.25].
ryder13 calls [$0.25].
tcouscous has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
tcouscous raises [$1.85].
wilkenbob folds.
vedis123 folds.
scans folds.
KidMarley folds.
BROR11 calls [$1.60].
Chinrest folds.
aDutchboy folds.
NMGambler calls [$1.60].
ryder13 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4s, 7c, 8s ]
BROR11 checks.
NMGambler checks.
tcouscous bets [$6.10].
BROR11 calls [$6.10].
NMGambler raises [$15].
tcouscous is all-In [$9.95]
BROR11 is all-In [$6.77]
NMGambler calls [$1.05].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
NMGambler shows [ As, 2s, 6s, 5d ] a flush, ace high.
NMGambler shows 7,4,3,2,A for low.
tcouscous shows [ 8c, 3h, 2d, Ah ] two pairs, eights and sevens.
tcouscous shows 7,4,3,2,A for low.
BROR11 shows [ Kh, 2c, Kd, Ad ] two pairs, kings and sevens.
BROR11 shows 7,4,3,2,A for low.
NMGambler wins $3.03 from side pot #1 with a flush, ace high.
tcouscous wins Lo ($1.51) from side pot #1 with 7,4,3,2,A.
NMGambler wins Lo ($1.52) from side pot #1 with 7,4,3,2,A.
NMGambler wins $21.38 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.
BROR11 wins Lo ($7.13) from the main pot with 7,4,3,2,A.
tcouscous wins Lo ($7.12) from the main pot with 7,4,3,2,A.
NMGambler wins Lo ($7.13) from the main pot with 7,4,3,2,A.

My (admittedly amateur) analysis:
- tcouscous pre-flip raise seems OK... strong low with insurance, flush potential, str8 potential. That being said, is this raise wise from MP? Also, doesn't he want lots of people in the pot with a nut flush draw and nut low with insurance?
- BROR11's pre-flop call was not unreasonable. A really good high draw (KK and nut flush) with an uninsured low A2. NMG was definitely right to call.
- On the flop, I think that BROR11 should let go of his hand. He has only a backdoor str8 draw and KK for the high and an easily counterfeited low that might end up being quartered (it was actually sixthed... if that is a word). Is this an easy lay down for everyone?
- NMG was correct to jam... he had a made str8 with a redraw to the nut flush and the nut low with insurance (geez, I want more hands like this).
- tcouscous' hand seems more problematic. He has the nut low with counterfeit protection, but only TPTK and a backdoor str8 draw as highs. Should he fold this to a pot-sized bet? Was the re-raise appropriate? How do you read this hand? The more I look at it, the more I think "easy lay down", but then again, knowing the donks on Party PLO8, who knows what that bet by NMG means (PTO stats... after 400 hands, -22PTBB/100)?

Did tcouscous just get unlucky here, or did he screw the pooch with the way he played his hand?

Any and all comments are welcome.

[edited to correct pre-flop analysis (beer was talking)]
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:33 am

My take on each hand FWIW:

tcoucous -
Raise is too big preflop with players yet to act, IMO. He doesn't really want to push everyone out of the pot (as you say) although raising seems OK with this hand, I think limping or putting in a smaller raise seems to make more sense. I have no problem with making a minimum raise with strong hands to let everyone in but make the pot bigger on the flop.
On the flop, betting out strongly seems sensible to me; that pair could be of use against someone holding a naked A2, and he wants to restrict entry to anyone with a flush draw or holding something like A3JJ, which is winning high but will probably dump to a full pot bet. I think I usually bet pot here, it's surprising how often everyone folds (although that's in the 100 and 200 games admittedly). Once someone raises I guess it's looking like a probable quartering, but with low insurance plus the vague possibility of scraping something out of high, I think he's got to call the last $10. Even getting SIXTHED he still gets about $9 back, so it's pretty much a no-brainer. The perils of short stacks!

BROR11:
Preflop seems fine, you really can't lay that down. If it hadn't been a full pot raise, I would've been tempted even to re-raise preflop, getting AKK2 all-in (or close to it) against someone with anything other than AA is pretty good news.
On the flop I think if he calls it's clear this hand is going all in, so he should raise or fold there. With the overpair I'd be tempted to move in in the 25PLO8 games, although against a set of decent opponents I'd not expect to often get called with weaker hands (A3, bare flush draw etc) and so perhaps passing would be a more sensible option, especially as the preflop raise and calls suggest at least one A2 is probably out already.

NMGambler:
Gotta call preflop I think, pretty strong hand that. Flop is a dream come true and the only question is how best to get both your opponents' stacks in the middle; I'd probably look to call and then get the rest in on the turn but I think the flop raise is liable to do the job anyway, so it kinda plays itself.

So I don't think anyone played it terribly, the nature of omaha is that sometimes these huge pots get built where everyone has a decent hand! For the two guys who got sixthed, it's hard not to put in a bet because they both have the nut low with (in the first case) apparent fold equity and something for high, and in the second case a decent possibility of winning high with nut low. It's hard to put A256 out there! However, I think both players might've played it a bit more carefully.

Monk
xxxxx
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby GooperMC » Sun Jul 24, 2005 9:49 am

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Postby Kuso » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:40 am

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Postby GooperMC » Sun Jul 24, 2005 6:02 pm

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Postby Kuso » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

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