$100 PLO on UB. Both players have almost full stacks.

I get [Th][8c][7c] in LP. An MP raises a bit (2bb) and I call. Everyone else folds. I played with MP before and my notes are a bit contradictory: on one occasion he seemed to be straightforward and not too tricky, and on another he seemed to draw to hands without correct odds. I've never caught him bluffing.

Flop is [6h][9c], Giving me a big wrap draw. Opponent bets pot, I call. I wasn't sure what to put him on, but I thought that a set was most likely. I wanted to see a good turn card before building a huge pot.

Turn is a , giving me a few more outs. Opponent bets pot again. I'm pretty sure now I'm up against a set, and I just call.

River: . I have my straight now, but not the nuts. Opponent bets full pot again, I call. Opponent shows KJ33 for bottom set and the nut straight on the river.

In retrospect I should have raised the flop or the turn to move him off the hand. Surely on such a board you cannot be confident in bottom set? But somehow I was caught in the "made hand vs draw" paradigm....

Pieter

To some extent, you were unlucky... the T is the only card that makes your hand and beats you (without pairing the board, that is). 5, 7, 8, J, and K all ship you the pot.

Whether I would raise or not would depend on my read... often I will let aggressive players bet into me. If you put this guy on a set, then I would probably be careful about driving the betting -- a few of the cards that make your str8 also make his boat. I think that this lowers your pot equity substantially.

Here are some twodimes #s:

FLOP

pokenum -o 7c 8c th jh - 3c 3h js kh -- 3d 6h 9c
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 9c 3d 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 7c Jh Th 345 42.07 475 57.93 0 0.00 0.421
Js 3c Kh 3h 475 57.93 345 42.07 0 0.00 0.579

TURN

pokenum -o 7c 8c th jh - 3c 3h js kh -- 3d 6h 9c qs
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Qs 9c 3d 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 7c Jh Th 15 37.50 25 62.50 0 0.00 0.375
Js 3c Kh 3h 25 62.50 15 37.50 0 0.00 0.625

Looks like your caution was reasonable. I suppose it all comes down to what you think your fold equity is.

I re-raise most folks preflop (I don't here with AAxx unless I think he'll bet any 4 again).

I raise that flop every time. He raised preflop; chances that hit him except for maybe an overpair and a bit of a draw are slim. I'm going to the felt if necessary. I want him to think I have top set so if the board pairs on turn I can push him out, but if the low straight comes and he hits it too I can go to the felt and freeroll. No way I have him on a set here. He got "lucky" to raise a garbage hand and catch a set. You got real unlucky on the river.

Once you call the flop you can't raise the turn because it makes no sense. If you are going to semi-bluff it HAS to be on the flop. Turn makes nothing. If you're going to represent something, it has to be something that makes sense. Your flop and turn calls worked together, and so made sense.

River you gotta call, a raise would suck.

I think you played it OK; not how I'd have done it BUT on occasions I suspect I'd be a bit scared on the flop (not against a preflop raiser however!) to put in a raise and get pushed off my great draw by an all-in (although, again, I would never fold this hand because the "raise then fold" move is horrible for your image, in most cases) but OK really. Wouldn't be too bothered.

Just be careful to try to put him on a hand next time; with that raise preflop I find it hard to believe that flop hit him more often than not, so with a big old draw it's a great semi-bluff spot. Oh, watch out for doing this when there's a ton of players behind you, also; in that situation you want to call because you have all the draws covered, so someone could hit a non-nut straight and get crippled by your hand, you want to let them in. Also, anyone with 2 pair is more than welcome, as you're unlikely to be chasing this pot if the board pairs.

Monk
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