This is somewhat related to the other quads post...

When you have top boat, under what conditions (if any) do you consider folding? Are there any telltale signs? When do you just call instead of raise?

I've had my boat beaten by quads twice in the last day (luckily for relatively small pots), and this got me thinking about whether this hand should ever be folded or just called.

Here's a hand I played today that had suspicious betting (highlights in blue):


$25 Omaha Hi/Lo Game Table (PL)

Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: keri48299 ( $15.28)
Seat 2: Hero ( $25.50)
Seat 3: CHA26498 ( $7.73)
Seat 4: MRSLYMAN ( $10.85)
Seat 5: GCardano ( $28.55)
Seat 6: Confiscator ( $20)
Seat 7: palimino222 ( $26.02)
Seat 8: HDiCP ( $9.25)
Seat 9: WOWLUCKYME ( $30.38)
Seat 10: Moser1947 ( $24.97)
HDiCP posts small blind (0.10)
WOWLUCKYME posts big blind (0.25)
Confiscator posts big blind (0.25)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kd, Ah, Kh, Th ]
Moser1947 calls (0.25)
keri48299 folds.
Hero raises (0.50) to 0.50
CHA26498 folds.
Confiscator calls (0.25)
palimino222 folds.
HDiCP folds.
WOWLUCKYME folds.
Moser1947 calls (0.25)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4c, 9s, 2d ]
Moser1947 checks.
Hero checks.
Confiscator checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ks ]
Moser1947 bets (1)
Hero raises (4.85) to 4.85
Confiscator folds.
Moser1947 calls (3.85)
** Dealing River ** : [ 2h ]
Moser1947 bets (2)
Hero could not respond in time.(disconnected)
Hero Disconnect Protection enabled.
Creating main pot with $11 with players Hero
** Summary **
Main Pot: $11 | Side Pot 1: $2 | Rake: $0.55
Board: [ 4c 9s 2d Ks 2h ]
keri48299 balance $15.28, didn't bet (folded)
Hero balance $31.15, bet $5.35, collected $11, net +$5.65 [ Kd Ah Kh Th ] [ a full house, Kings full of twos -- Kd,Kh,Ks,2d,2h ]
CHA26498 balance $7.73, didn't bet (folded)
MRSLYMAN balance $10.85, sits out
GCardano balance $28.55, sits out
Confiscator balance $19.50, lost $0.50 (folded)
palimino222 balance $26.02, didn't bet (folded)
HDiCP balance $9.15, lost $0.10 (folded)
WOWLUCKYME balance $30.13, lost $0.25 (folded)
Moser1947 balance $19.62, bet $7.35, collected $2, lost -$5.35 [ 4s Qd 5c 9d ] [ two pairs, nines and fours -- Ks,9d,9s,4s,4c ]

I was about to raise $2 more when I got disconnected. While I was waiting for the reconnect (which never happened), I was wondering whether this was a good idea. He called my checkraise, and then bet out on the river. Clearly he either had no fear (i.e. held the quads) or was stupid -- results suggest the latter.

So is losing to quads just something that should be chalked up to variance? Is it +EV to always jam regardless of an opponent's betting pattern? Does it change if the game is 100PLO8 as compared to 25PLO8?

Thoughts?

i rarely slow down with top boat unless there are 3 of a kind on the board. If someone has quads, I will pay it off. On that river, I wouldn't be min raising, i would be raising more because if he's got something, he's likely calling more but if he is bluff, he isn't calling much so I will take the chance that the average omaha player can't fold a mediocre hand.

thanlks for the comments.

until now i have confidently jammed or value bet with top boat, but after seeing the quads pop up so much recently, i was wondering if this was always best best.

i really like the 95% rule, gooper, and i'll certainly start using it. basically, i'll stick with jamming or value betting, as i don't think i have ever been 95% sure of an opponent holding a boat (too many whacko fishies).