by Felonius_Monk » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:24 am
Because you have position, I think this is a call. Out of position it's marginal. If the flush comes and someone bets pot before you on the river, you can probably fold (as you have the 2nd and 3rd nut flushes covered so he likely has the Qd). If the flush comes and it's checked to you, you can showdown (or, if they are calling station types, make a value bet) and win a nice pot for your $10 investment. A Q is likely to be a tying card, but your boat might win if you hit a T or a 9. Also, if no-one has a royal straight (which at present seems quite likely) a 7 might win it for you. The extra big pot you win for your royal flush out swings things a tiny bit also (although you hit perhaps 2.5% of the time, that's still 2.5% of $140 plus the pot itself which is going to be $50 or so, which = over $5 equity for that one possible card - meaning your other "outs" only have to give you equity of a measly $5 to make the call worthwhile - surely you win this hand often enough to justify $5 into what's going to be a $35+ pot?). If you're out of position I would only call if both players are pretty weak calling stations who won't bluff a river. That way you can make a small bet on a flush or low boat and if you get raised, easily fold.
The Monkman J[c]
"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993