Playing Limit OHL, have A, 2 in the pocket, flop comes Q, T, 3. What are the odds of 2 cards making a qualified low on the turn and the river? If my calculations are correct 1.5:1 of a card on the turn, if it hits 3:1 of one hitting on the river.

Hey mcsock.

With a runner runner card nut low draw on the flop, you make low around 19.5% of the time. Being for only half the pot, this is equivalent to about 8 or 9% pot equity (you could round it up to 10 I guess) as long as no-one holds any low cards. Of course, in a multi-way pot there are likely to be numerous low cards out so your real chances of hitting it are considerably lower.

With THREE cards to make a low in your hand (i.e. counterfeit protection) you make a runner runner low around 30% of the time (or just under). This shows the strength of having protection in your low draw (adds about 50% equity to the low draw).

Therefore when you hold a high only hand with one low card on the flop, two running low cards will come a little more than quarter of the time, so you usually bet to protect yourself from runner runner low draws.

Hope this helps.

Monk
xxxxx