Hello,

Is an open-end straight flush draw and nut flush draw on the flop enough for calling pot-sized bets on flop and turn?

Look at the following hand (PLO $25max PartyPoker). After reviewing that hand I'm asking me if I should reraise on the flop the next time. The draw looks strong to me.


Lumbejack.


***** Hand History for Game 1463651332 *****
0/0 OmahaHiGameTable (PL) - Thu Jan 20 09:25:37 EST 2005
Table Table 27728 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: pernaveikko ( $40.56)
Seat 2: vincentk13 ( $43.1)
Seat 3: LA_Price ( $24.25)
Seat 4: HERO ( $33.65)
Seat 5: SwimmerM ( $23.75)
Seat 6: PuffCCx ( $14.2)
Seat 7: bl0wback ( $54.65)
Seat 8: jonrobt ( $4.9)
Seat 9: Gruldesk ( $24.5)
HERO posts small blind (0.25)
SwimmerM posts big blind (0.5)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [9s][Jd][Ts]
bl0wback calls (0.5)
jonrobt folds.
Gruldesk calls (0.5)
pernaveikko folds.
vincentk13 calls (0.5)
LA_Price folds.
HERO calls (0.25)
SwimmerM checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [8s][3c]
HERO bets (2)
SwimmerM folds.
bl0wback raises (8.4) to 8.4
Gruldesk folds.
vincentk13 folds.
HERO calls (6.4)
** Dealing Turn ** :
HERO checks.
bl0wback bets (18.35)
HERO calls (18.35)
** Dealing River ** :
HERO checks.
bl0wback bets (6.39)
HERO calls (6.39)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $65.78 | Rake: $3
Board: [ Js 8s 3c 4d Ah ]
pernaveikko balance $40.56, didn't bet (folded)
vincentk13 balance $42.6, lost $0.5 (folded)
LA_Price balance $24.25, didn't bet (folded)
HERO balance $0.01, lost $33.64 [ As 9s Jd Ts ] [ two pairs, aces and jacks -- As,Ah,Jd,Js,8s ]
SwimmerM balance $23.25, lost $0.5 (folded)
PuffCCx balance $14.2, sits out
bl0wback balance $86.79, bet $33.64, collected $65.78, net +$32.14 [ Jh 2h Jc 7s ] [ three of a kind, jacks -- Ah,Jh,Jc,Js,8s ]
jonrobt balance $4.9, didn't bet (folded)
Gruldesk balance $24, lost $0.5 (folded)

Count your outs.. With atleast 13!!! call it down!!
four Q's four 7's..and having 3 of a suit only decreases the chances of a flush hitting. also flush cards that pair the board usually aren't good..
so 6 flush outs after turn.
14outs total.. since you were out of position. The correct move would have been to go allin on turn.

woah.. twodimes didn't look good.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=721411

I disagree. You can save the last $6.35 by not going all in on the turn, and you know that you're certainly behind here (your opponent re-raised the flop) and have little or no fold equity.

Being able to save that last bet with a big drawing hand when you can be fairly sure you're up against a set is an important part of PLO; often, you'll see players move in when they're an underdog on the strength of a great draw. If you were going to move in anywhere, I think the flop is better than the turn; you're behind to a set but if there's any chance you can fold your opponent you'll know on the flop as a re-raise is a very strong move.

I count 7 flush outs (the 3 pairs the board and you have 3 flush cards in your hand, 2 on board, 13-6=7) plus 6 straight cards (two of the straightening cards are spades that make your flush and cant be counted twice) so 13 outs in total.

I think the correct play is to call the flop and call the turn. If you hit your draw on the river you can get the last 6 bucks out of him (no way he'll fold for such a small sum) and if you miss everything you can fold. You were correct to call your 2-pair on the off chance he had something other than a set, though by this point that's what i'm expecting him to turn over. If the river was a blank you can safely save the last 6 bucks in the knowledge that you're beaten here.

I can see some reasons for going in on the turn in this hand that I think Edgar is considering (always the chance of folding a stronger hand, always the tiniest chance he has something like a full high wrap with a lower flush draw and is thus behing to your top pair, you don't lose MUCH equity by putting in the last 6 bucks), and so I don't think it's a bad play at all. My choice would be to save that last 6 bucks if you miss your hand, and use it as implied odds that swing the turn call to +ve EV. I'm going to write something about precisely this play in a forthcoming article.

The reason I wouldn't RE-raise the flop, lumber, is that your opponent shows a lot of strength by raising your lead bet. What you could have tried would have been check-raising the hand (though I prefer to lead out with huge draws like yours), then he might lead with a weak hand (2 pair etc) and you can go back over the top. That would be fine in this spot as your holding of a jack makes it less likely that someone has a set of jacks, and thus more likely that you can fold a weaker hand like bottom set or two pair by re-raising (though the standard of your opponents at PLO25 probably wont fold those hands!). But, once you lead out (for less than the pot btw! Always bet the pot here, you reveal less about your hand by doing so) and get RAISED, chances are very good he has a set in which case you're slight underdog but have odds to continue and hope for someone else to maybe fish in for a couple of bucks too. I think I would've played it exactly like you did except raise the full pot on the flop; it may seem very passive but that's the way to go here, I think, for the reasons I outlined. Questions/comments?

Monk
xxxxx

Getting 11-1 on the river call, I don't think it's a terrible one once you hit two pair. There's surely the slimmest chance he's got a lower two pair or something. However, I do feel that IF you put him on a set on the turn that not moving all in here was sensible. My main point was that after you're re-raised on the flop, I don't like attacking again on the turn because if you miss your draws completely you can safely fold and save that last 6 bucks. The ace was just unlucky, but I wouldnt beat yourself up over that call at the end.

Monk
xxxxx