I know there are some “set over set happens and there is nothing you can do about it-players” in this forum. Here is a hand where set over set is definitely possible. Do you fold?

$1/$2 NL at PS. You bought in for $200 and have build your stack to $560. Now you are in CO with [Th]. 1 limper and MP raises to $8. MP is tight aggressive. His PFR is 6% and his VPIP is 20%. He sometimes overplays TPTK and overpairs in raised pots. MP has $208 before his raise. You call, blinds and limper fold.

Flop $20
[Ts][Ac]

MP bets $15, you raise to $38, MP reraises to $80, you...? It’s $42 to call, MP has $120 left.

He could have AK or AQ ( or even AJ) just as easily as AA or KK.
In most cases Im going all in here. I think if he has AA or KK hes more likely to call your raise and check raise all in at the turn. I think you win here at least 50% of the time which means you can fold.

Unless this guy is a total rock I am all in here. First off it is a small raise for AA or KK. I think there is a much higher probablity that he is playin Ak and trying to protect his hand from someone drawing to a str8. If he has AA or KK I double him up no question.

I’m very surprised by your responses. I think it’s a fold.
But that’s probably because I was MP in the hand described. I had KK and I don’t think I would play AK like I played this hand. We got all in on flop and I won.

The chances of two people flopping sets with pockets pairs is really small. Less than 2% for this reason I am willing to go bust with a set. For everytime you got bust set over set, you make 50x as much money vs someone playing AK and have them drawing at 4 outs.

Where are you getting the 2% number? 2% of what? 2 % of the time you have a set, someone else will have a set also or what?

I know set over set doesn't happen very often, but when it happens to me, I almost always have the big set, and it's not because I don't play small pairs. I just won another big pot when I flopped a set of jacks and another player had a set of 8's. I don't complain but if/when the cards change I just don't think I will be able to get away from a low set either.
Perhaps I'm just lucky.

Iceman that 2% number is two people starting with a PP and both flopping sets with them. It is different if there are 3 or more people with pocket pairs. I was just using this % to show how rare set over set is. I am almost always willing to go broke in that situation, I figure in the long run I win more by not folding my set than I lose when the other player actually does have a set, there are exceptions but they are rare.

Im not disagreeing with you. I just wanted to know where the 2% number came from.
You say that if 2 people start with a pocket pair that only 2% of the time both will flop sets. But since we dont know if the opponent started with a pair, can we really use this 2% figure?

The reason Im asking is that I was trying to figure out this exact question the other day when I lost set over set twice in 10 minutes.

Is there any way to figure the odds of hitting a set and another guy having a set? Its probably not possible since you never know how many opponents you'll have.

What if you say there are 5 people seeing the flop, can you figure it then? Im not even close to being an odds expert, although once Im told the odds of something, I will rarely forget.

This should actually be in the odds forum so Im going to make a post over there.

I'm not sure about the 2% figure. Isn't that logic a like the statistician who always carries a bomb with him whenever on an aircraft, reasoning that although there`s a chance of a terrorist bringing a bomb onto the plane, the chances of 2 people bringing a bomb onto a plane are really much slimmer? Or maybe it`s too early and I've not thought it through too well

That said, I'm pragmatic about set over set.. if it happens, it happens. I've laid down a set on the flop a few times before, but not without a genuine read, knowledge of the player, etc.. and even at that, it almost had to be pried from my cold, dead hands