by Felonius_Monk » Mon Jan 09, 2006 1:30 pm
Fold is indeed the right answer. This is the worst hand I've played in a long time; usually in omaha you're looking to make small mistakes (if you have to make a mistake!) such as getting your money in as a slight underdog, or folding a hand that has marginal +EV or something. The mistakes that hurt are the BIG ones, the ones where you give up a whole world of EV. And I made a BIG one here when I pushed all in.
The lead better presumably has some made hand (at the time it really felt like a biggie, a full bet into a multi-way pot, he clearly wasn't scared of getting all in here), and the smooth call from the PFR player is just screaming that he has a flush draw. All that considered, it seems pretty sure I'm behind in the main pot, and ahead in the side but with a flush draw that has no chance of being good. Of course the gutshot is handy, but really even in the best case scenario I'm unlikely to be +EV here (or at least very much; say, if PFR has nut flush draw and the other guy has the same top two I'm a shade +EV to get it in), and there is a real possibility I can be utterly buried here.
Indeed it proved, as the lead bettor had top set and the smooth caller had AA with the nut flush draw. I haven't done the maths but I figure my EV to get my E200 stack in here was probably less than E70, which, in a three way pot, is pretty ugly.
The Monkman J[c]
"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993