I'm at another crossroads in my poker life. It's the crossroads of Frustration Street and Jaded Avenue. 2005 was a very successful poker year for me, not to mention a success IRL. I started out playing 0.50/1 LHE and ended up playing 5/10 full time and taking cracks at 15/30, winning thousands of dollars along the way. I have long since cashed out my initial investments, and have been playing on OPM (other people's money) for months now.

Before you stop reading and say, "Christ, not another whiny bad beat post," I can tell you that no, this isn't another bad beat post.

Here's the problem. I've struggled since October '05, essentially just pushing money around a table, but not really getting anywhere.

I tried bonus whoring. Very counterproductive for me. When you buy into a site and start playing 2/4 during a bonus time, EXPECT fish to draw on you. I had more than my share. So, I decided to pare back my sites, and keep my money between Full Tilt and PokerStars. I made that decision in December, and since then it seems like I've just won money and gave it back. Either I'm running great hands into the one hand that can beat me (that the opponent can't POSSIBLY have), I'm running QQ into AA, or AJ into AQ, or I have hands like the gem where KK lost to K5o (yes, you're right--that is a 9-to-1 favorite pre-flop...). Just today, I had QQ all-in pre-flop against AK, and I just KNEW he was going to hit. He did, with a K on the flop. Then, he called me a fish. Can you f***ing believe that?

Either way, I'm frustrated with poker. Very frustrated. I know I'm playing generally solid poker--nobody plays great all the time, and I've been prone to some real tilt-fests over the last 3 months as well--but the results just aren't there.

I feel that I'm at least as good a player as I was in October (when I was just demolishing the Stars 5/10 FR game), but for some reason, either because I can't take playing $25 NL as seriously, or that I cashed out so much of my winnings that I don't have enough to really play the 5/10 anymore without playing scared, or...I don't even know. I just can't get off this 3-month long schneid, and it drives me crazy. I can pinpoint the date it started--October 12, 2005. I was at my high water mark, after taking a shot at the 15/30 game and winning $400 in about half an hour. I played the next day and got slaughtered (as evidenced --8th post down). That started the downward spin. I was able to right the ship, but it just seems as though I can't break through since that point. I don't know if it's psychological, if I'm just enduring bad beats and tilting in response, or if I'm just playing sloppy.

Either way, I want it to stop.

I can think of a few things this year that made me feel indestructable:

1) Winning the $20 LHE MTT on Stars.
2) Placing 13th of 300+ in a $55 MTT at the Taj Mahal in AC.
3) Running over live tables pretty much wire to wire.
4) The quick hit n run session at the 15/30 in October.

And for the flip side?

1) Cashing out less than I deposited at InterPoker--AFTER the bonus. (12/05)
2) Doing the same at Empire. (10/05)
3) My big (relative) downswing at 5/10 at Stars late in the year.

I think a great deal of the key is not getting too high or too low--but just playing your game. I also think I'm going to redeposit a little more into Stars (excess from the NetTeller account) to get up to about $1200 over there, and get back into the 3/6 game and move up accordingly. I'll keep the Full Tilt account for playing NLHE and a few mixed game tournies, since Stars doesn't yet offer them (Otis...). I just have to get past this, because I do love poker--I love the competition, the mental stimulation, and yeah, the money ain't bad either.

Thanks for listening, and all comments are welcome as always.

Huge blog post--check it out (addy in the sig line):

Big title, eh? Sounds like I have a great deal to live up to in this post. I actually think I can. Everybody who is anybody knows all about Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker:


Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.


But here, I suggest the Theory of No-Limit Poker: In addition to the above, I submit this:


In No-Limit Poker, every action, every bet, every element of every bet--down to the amount of the bet--exists for a reason. Every decision has a desired consequence. If you cannot determine the appropriate rationale or consequence for completing a given action, the action does not have appropriate EV.


To apply this theory, we need to consider each action in the hand individually. Take for example (no, please--take it) this hand I played yesterday:

Seat 1: Donkey ($20.15)
Seat 2: Button ($23.30)
Seat 3: SB ($9.75)
Seat 4: BB ($17.80)
Seat 5: UTG ($22.15)
Seat 6: UTG+1 ($35.80)
Seat 7: MP1 ($10.20)
Seat 8: MP2 ($9.65)
Seat 9: Hero ($46.35)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero: (Ah Ac)
2 folds,MP1 raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, Donkey calls $1.25,3 folds, MP1 calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** (8s 2h Js) ($4.10)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2.60, Donkey calls $2.60, MP1 folds
*** TURN *** (8s 2h Js) (3h) ($9.30)
Hero bets $9, Donkey calls $9
*** RIVER *** (8s 2h Js 3h) (9s) ($27.30)
Hero bets $7.30, Donkey calls $7.30, and is all in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero shows (Ah Ac) (a pair of Aces)
Donkey shows (Qs 7s) (a flush, Queen high)
Donkey wins the pot ($39.85) with a flush, Queen high

I'm not using this as a bad beat post, but as a description of where I went wrong here:

PRE-FLOP: (Ah Ac)
Hero raises to $1.25
What am I doing?
Re-raising.

Why?
I want to tell the table that a) I have a strong hand. b) I want to make anyone with a weaker hand pay to see any flop that can beat me. c) I want to build a pot for me to win if/when people DO call.

Why that amount?
The original raise was a wimpy min-raise, so I raised to 5BB, 2.5x the original raise.

FLOP: (8s 2h Js)
Hero bets $2.60
What am I doing?
Betting $2.60.

Why?
To show strength and to eliminate any flush draw from calling.

Why that amount (about 2/3 pot)?
This is where I made a mistake. Part of me wants the call, therefore the sub-pot-sized bet. The other part wants to price out draws, but do I bet enough here? Anyone with a flush draw has 9 outs, not including any overcards or pairs they may have. We'll assign 10.5 outs, and assume that the player has (As 2s), the hand least likely to fold here. The opponent has about 3.5-to-1 odds to hit with 10.5 outs, or 4.2-to-1 odds to hit with a naked flush draw. My bet gives him only 2.57-to-1 on his money, which means he would need >18 outs to correctly call, so my bet was technically and mathematically correct, but the question is--would he have called given a full-pot bet? We'll never know.

TURN: (8s 2h Js) (3h)
Hero bets $9
What am I doing?
Betting a full-pot sized bet--$9.00

Why?
To build a potential pot, and to price out the now two flush draws that are out there on the board.

Why that amount (Full pot)?
Again, I'm trying to price out any potential drawing players. With two draws out there, I need to bet large. I need to protect my hand, which is quite vulnerable, not only to the flush draw, but also to any potential two pair hand. I bet $9 into a $9.30 pot, meaning that the caller is getting only slightly more than 2-to-1 on his money. This means that even with 10.5 outs (drawing potentially to two pair as well as a flush) he's 3.38-to-1 against making a hand. With a naked flush draw, he's 4.11-to-1 against making a hand. Again, my bet is mathematically and technically correct, but he calls anyway. To correctly call this bet, he would need in excess of 23 outs.

RIVER: (8s 2h Js 3h) (9s)
Hero bets $7.30
What am I doing?
Betting $7.30 to put my opponent all-in.

Why?
Frustration. This could have been my severe error in this hand. Was I a) trying to bluff that I made the flush and price out any weaker flushes? b) trying to push him off a hand? c) Just seeing if he'd lay down a busted heart draw?

Why that amount?
I felt that if he had to go all-in with a weak flush that he would let it go, or I was just pissed off, frustrated, or whatever. It was also a sense of a blocking bet, because if I had checked it, he would've pushed his last $7.30 in, and I would've been forced to call.

He called and showed down the Queen-high flush, sending my aces to the muck as the losing hand.

I'm not sure this hand would have or could have gone differently regardless of how I played it. The opponent had a VP$IP of 71%, a PFR% of 3%, and an Aggression Factor of 0.84, an extra-loose calling station. In hindsight, and being results-oriented, perhaps a stronger push on the flop would've forced him out. Maybe pushing all-in there, or pushing all-in on the turn may have helped, but again, we'll never know. The opponent made errors at almost every decision point and still won the hand. That's where the gambling part of poker comes in.

Let's analyze the opponent's play:
PRE-FLOP:
Error #1--He called a raise and re-raise cold with Q7s. Even speculatively, this is a decidedly -EV move. At this point, he made up his mind that if he flopped a flush draw, he would chase it to the river.

FLOP:
Error #2--He called a flop bet without sufficient odds to draw to a flush. He did have a two-gapped 3-to-a-straight draw as well, but even adding the 1.5 outs to that doesn't give him odds to profitably call the bet.

TURN:
Error #3--He called a pot-sized bet with nowhere near the odds needed to call. Even if you factor in the implied odds, he's calling $9 to win $30.85 more TOTAL(3.42-to-1) on his weak flush draw (4.11-to-1).

RIVER:
His first correct play of the hand. With a flush, you have to call this bet. Even if I had a higher flush, being that pot-committed, you have to call the last $7.30 off your stack to see if I bluffed it the whole way. My action prior says I don't have the flush. You have to call here, getting 4.75-to-1 on your money that I don't have a suited king in spades or a suited ace in spades.

Ok, this is some real second- and third-level thinking here. How about a chart based upon how much you need to bet, relative to pot-size, to price an opponent out of a draw to a hand that could potentially be better than yours? Much of this is read-dependent, obviously, but based upon what you know about an opponent's hand, maybe this can give you a guide.

(snip table--go find it!)


That table essentially is all about how much you should bet to make sure that an opponent's call will be incorrect. Of course, it is just a guideline, and using the guidelines to the letter will pretty much ensure that you'll get sucked out on your share and more. Bet stronger than the guideline. Better to win small pots than lose a big one.

I hope to use some of this information to not only create more articles, but also to refine your (and my own) hand analysis skills. When looking at a hand you've played, one of the things I've learned is to review the hand from the opponent's perspective. That will likely be the focus of my next article. Good luck at the tables, and happy reading!

i'm not a NL expert, but i question the turn bet. you've pot-committed yourself (as you said), so if you put him on the flush draw (maybe with two overs or a pair), why not push? he's not going to call if he whiffs, but you will if he hits. i'd rather get all the money in ASAP and maybe take the pot down.

as far as sklansky bucks go, his error in calling on the turn with implied odds was relatively small. if he put you on TP and a Q would be good, then villain's call may actually be +ev if you include implied odds.

don't get me wrong, i don't advocate villain's style -- i think it's -EV overall -- but I myself wonder about how the turn could be played better.

your insights are interesting, so i hope we can see more posts like this.


[edited for punctuation]

Rough night at the $50 NL tonight...

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $83.85
UTG+1: $52.50
MP1: $47.50
MP2: $57.95
Hero: $48.75
Button: $58.30
SB: $29.35
BB: $34

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.5, MP2 folds, Hero calls $0.5, Button raises to $2.5, SB calls $2.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($8.5, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.25, Button raises to $10.5, SB folds, Hero calls $5.25.

Turn: ($29.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $10, Hero raises all-in $35.75, Button calls $25.75.

River: ($101, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $101)


Results:
Final pot: $101
Hero showed Qh Th
Button showed Kc Kd


That was of course after I had a hand with a guy with a VP$IP of (gak) 68% and a PFR of 34%:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $17.15
UTG+1: $47.75
MP1: $62.30
MP2: $48.45
MP3: $54
CO: $16.65
Button: $35.95
SB: $29.50
Hero: $49.50

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1, SB folds, Hero raises to $3, MP2 raises to $7.5, Button folds, Hero raises to $20, MP2 raises all-in $48.45, Hero calls $28.45.

Flop: ($98.15, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $98.15)


Turn: ($98.15, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $98.15)


River: ($98.15, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $98.15)


Results:
Final pot: $98.15
MP2 showed Ad Ac
Hero showed Ah Kh

Lesson 1: Never CALL an all-in without a monster. Of course he has AA. Sigh.

Today is national Second Best Hand Day, or as I like to call it, "Yes, Virginia, there are monsters under your bed."

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players


Stack sizes:
Hero: $89.40
UTG+1: $27.60
MP1: $26.45
MP2: $49.25
MP3: $30.35
CO: $99.30
Button: $33.10
SB: $19.45
BB: $105.75

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with
Hero calls $0.5, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.5, MP3 folds, CO raises to $1.9, 2 folds, BB calls $1.4, Hero calls $1.4, MP2 calls $1.4.

Flop: ($7.85, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($7.85, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $7.85, BB folds, Hero raises to $20, MP2 folds, CO raises to $45, Hero raises all-in $87.5, CO calls $42.5.

River: ($182.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $182.85)


Results:
Final pot: $182.85
CO showed Kh Ks
Hero showed 3c 3d

I slowplayed my set, he slowplayed his MONSTER set. And who says set over set isn't that common?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $77
Hero: $53.10
MP1: $19.50
MP2: $11.50
CO: $28.30
Button: $63.15
SB: $73.05
BB: $42.10

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $5, CO calls $5, 3 folds, Hero raises to $11.5, MP2 calls all-in $6.5, CO raises all-in $28.3, Hero calls $16.8.

Flop: ($63.85, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $20.25, Sidepot 1: $43.6)


Turn: ($63.85, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $20.25, Sidepot 1: $43.6)


River: ($63.85, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $20.25, Sidepot 1: $43.6)


Results:
Final pot: $63.85
Hero showed Ts Td
MP2 showed Kc Kd
CO showed As Ah


I figure my tens are good here, then, all hell breaks loose. Nahh, they're no good. I really should have known.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $26.50
UTG+1: $7.10
MP1: $64.05
MP2: $34.80
MP3: $40.70
CO: $47.25
Button: $49
SB: $97.55
Hero: $55

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with
4 folds, MP3 calls $0.5, CO calls $0.5, Button calls $0.5, SB folds, SB, folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2.25, 4 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($2.25, 4 players)
Hero bets $2, MP3 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $12, MP3 raises to $20, Hero raises all-in $54.5, MP3 calls all-in $20.2.
Uncalled bets: $34.3 returned to Hero.

River: ($42.65, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $42.65)


Results:
Final pot: $42.65
MP3 showed Tc 4c
Hero showed 7d 2h

I know I should've bet the flop, but when your opponent is 71/32/0.75, he's not going anywhere anyway--not with top pair. His junk kicked me in my junk.

Net loss: $126--couldn't have played too bad, since I HAD $126 to lose on 2 $50NL tables.

I went a few days with no poker, and I got my head cleared a bit.

Went to Stars to return to the games I pwned last year, and I started at 3/6 LHE. I logged a grinding, winning session and enjoyed myself thoroughly. I played a little less than 100 hands, and logged a $20 or so win. It was therapeutic.

Also, I decided to take on the PLO tables over at FTP. Weird thing is (even without PokerTracker), I am decidedly TAG (ultra-aggressive) at LHE and NLHE. As for PLO, I am the LAGgiest player you can imagine. My VP$IP has to be ~ 50%, and I'm up so far (in a guessed 600 hands) about $80. I actually like playing LAG-style PLO. I tend to see a lot of flops cheaply then outplay my opponents post-flop with highly aggressive play. Of course, that will get all the BTPers over there to come looking for me--remember guys, sharks don't eat their own...

It's a dangerous life, but a nice change of pace from $50 and $25 NLHE.