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Creating your own pot odds

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Creating your own pot odds

Postby Ojingo » Wed Jan 11, 2006 3:44 pm

The following situation is quite common in PLO, but I wonder how you guys do the calculations.

Suppose you are in LP with AAxx once suited, and you raise pot after a bunch of limpers. You get two callers, and the pot is $25 (all started with $100 = 100BB).

The flop comes J-rag-rag with two of your suit, giving you an overpair and the nutflush draw. It is checked to you and you bet pot. Now one caller folds and the other pushes in. Assume first that this means with certainty that he has a set.

It cost you about $70 to call, and if you call the final pot will be around $210. Depending on the sidecards you have from 30% to 40% equity in the pot, so on average you should call. However, you created your own pot odds here with your bet on the flop. If you were to call $95 for a $210 pot you should definitely fold here...
Of course this does not necessarily mean you played it wrong, but if you knew that your opponent had a set, then you should not bet the flop.

Whether you should bet the flop depends on 1) your opponents hand range 2) the likelyhood that this flop hit his hand 3) the hands he will raise with (probably also two pair, if he puts you on AA) 4) the frequency with which he will bluffraise.

Given the fact that you know you are playing for your stack once you bet and your opponent checkraises, how do you calculate in practice whether your flop bet is correct?
(Assume for simplicity that the other opponent will always fold.)

Pieter
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