Hi guys, stumbled across these forums about a month ago and decided to give the NashVegas strategy a go.
I was doing very well up until a few days ago, when i lost 5 buy ins in a row at the $5+1s on party. I realise i only have a very small sample size - 28 tourneys so far- but my ITM and ROI were 50% and 40.2% respectively before the downswing and now they are a rather dissapointing 41% and 14%.
I was wondering, are these kind of losses normal for $5+1 SNGs? Or is it my play that is likely to be at fault? I've gone over a few hands in poker tracker where i busted out and have found one or two glaring mistakes. The hands i busted out on or was left crippled after losing the majority of my chips are below. Any advice/criticism is much appreciated.

Tourney 1 of 5 - blinds are going up fast, still 6 players left, i get a piece of the flop and make a reraise for all my chips after a likely steal attempt from EP.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed)

Button (t379)
SB (t2283)
Hero (t810)
UTG (t1638)
MP (t1775)
CO (t1115)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
1 fold, MP calls t150, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t450) , , (3 players)
SB bets t150, Hero calls [t810] , MP calls t660, SB calls t510.

Turn: (t1770) (3 players)
SB bets t150, MP calls t150.

River: (t2070) (3 players)

Final Pot: t2070

Results in white below:
SB has 5c 5d (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Hero has 4c 2h (two pair, sevens and sixes).
MP has Qh Kd (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Outcome: MP wins t2070.

Tourney 2 of 5 - very early in, pick up AK in LP, reraise the CO, hit a king on the flop and then lose to a flush on the turn

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

MP2 (t750)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t2235)
Hero (t835)
SB (t745)
BB (t1065)
UTG (t815)
UTG+1 (t380)
MP1 (t375)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
5 folds, CO raises to t60, Hero raises to t125, 2 folds, CO calls t65.

Flop: (t295) , , (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets t300, CO calls t300.

Turn: (t895) (2 players)
CO checks, Hero calls [t410] , CO calls t410.

River: (t1305) (2 players)

Final Pot: t1305

Results in white below:
CO has Ac 3c (flush, ace high).
Hero has Kc Ah (one pair, kings).
Outcome: CO wins t1305.

Tourney 3 of 5 - this was a pretty stupid play i have to admit, left me shortstacked and i busted out about 25 hands later

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (7 handed)

SB (t605)
Hero (t775)
UTG (t2895)
MP1 (t975)
MP2 (t875)
CO (t685)
Button (t1190)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
2 folds, MP2 calls t15, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t42.50) , , (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (t42.50) (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t45, MP2 folds, SB calls t45.

River: (t132.50) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t135, SB calls [t555] , Hero folds.

Final Pot: t267.50

Tourney 4 of 5

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed)

UTG+1 (t745)
UTG+2 (t415)
Hero (t640)
MP2 (t1400)
MP3 (t550)
CO (t770)
Button (t825)
SB (t785)
BB (t735)
UTG (t1135)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t15, Hero raises to t350, 1 fold, MP3 calls [t550] , 4 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls t200.

Flop: (t587.50) , , (2 players)

Turn: (t587.50) (2 players)

River: (t587.50) (2 players)

Final Pot: t587.50

Results in white below:
Hero has Qs As (high card, ace).
MP3 has Ad Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: MP3 wins t587.50.

Tourney 5 of 5 - 2 hands for this one. 1st was unlucky, 2nd i was pretty frustrated, probably on tilt and tried a stupid steal

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed)

MP (t1295)
Button (t1495)
Hero (t2795)
BB (t610)
UTG (t1805)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
2 folds, Button calls [t1495] , Hero completes, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1695) , , (2 players)

Turn: (t1695) (2 players)

River: (t1695) (2 players)

Final Pot: t1695

Results in white below:
Hero has Qs Ad (one pair, kings).
Button has Qh 5c (two pair, kings and fives).
Outcome: Button wins t1695.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)

BB (t2495)
UTG (t2050)
Hero (t1545)
SB (t1910)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
1 fold, Hero calls [t1545] , SB calls [t1910] t200, 1 fold.

Flop: (t600) , , (2 players)

Turn: (t600) (2 players)

River: (t600) (2 players)

Final Pot: t600

Results in white below:
Hero has Ts 7s (high card, jack).
SB has 9c As (high card, ace).
Outcome: SB wins t600.

Sorry for the massive post, any help you could give would be great! thanks!

My OTM (off the money) record is now 12. Trust me, everyone playing SNGs will hit one of those bad patches at some point. My ROI slowly dropped from 80% (after 75 SNGs) to 25% (after 200 SNGs) over the course of a couple weeks.

Hand #1
Umm... what? I would suggest a fold. Pushing with low-pair-no-kicker on a paired board in an unraised multiway pot when the SB bets out is... not "optimal" to put it kindly.

Hand #2
Your re-raise is way too small. He miniraised which usually means Axs or a pair below JJ so this is a VERY good time for a push since:
a) Your fold equity is high
b) He might call with a hand you dominate, either way you're at worst a coin flip
c) You want to see all 5 cards if he has a PP

Hand #3
Your flop and turn play is Ok but *why* would you bet the river? You actually have something resembling a hand but it is very unlikely that a worse hand will call, and even more unlikely a better hand will fold. It's a "bet that can't be right". Just check behind.

Hand #4
AQs is a nice hand but not something you wnt to put all your chips behind when the blinds are low. You're raising 23xBB which basically turns a nice hand into 72o. Meaning you will only be called when you are in terrible shape, ie: by AA, KK, QQ and AK. Two options preflop:
-Limp behind and hope the pot isn't raised behind you. Then you both have the nut flush draw and a really good kicker for your Ace.
-Raise it to 5xBB or so and fold to a re-raise.

Hand #5
If button has been stealing (like he should) this is a good call. If he's been very tight, it's bad.

Hand #6
Pretty standard. With blinds that big you got to push anything and hope for a fold or suckout.



Summary
You are not unlucky. Your win/rate is just stabilising and approaching your true win/rate. There is no way you will have a ROI of 40% playing like this. I would guess it would be more like 5-10% in the long run. You're simply not playing very well. Slightly better than the average player maybe (you seem to have decent hand selection and know to push when the blinds get big) but not a lot.

Yes HOH will help, BUT don't count on it working all the time at the 10+1's - people aren't clever enough to understand the moves you are pulling.

Also the Heads Up section is great - but notice that they have huge stacks compared to the size of the blinds - in most SNG's the blinds are high by the time it gets heads up so you need to be WAY more aggressive.