by Felonius_Monk » Sun Feb 13, 2005 8:16 am
BB obviously has a straight (one would expect) but as he's so short stacked he ceases to really become an issue. So in effect you're playing against the MP player. His call suggests he does not have the nut straight (probably) and if this is the case you're going to be at least a small favourite (up to about a 60%+ fave if he only has a set). If there's a flush draw it's kinda different and I'd probably wait for a nice turn before moving over him but as it is you have the nuts and it seems unlikely that MP does. I would make the big raise here, I think you can put about 70 bucks in here which puts you so close to all-in you'd be practically pot committed.
As you played it, turn play is kinda difficult. I guess it depends on your read but I think you're either tying for the pot or you're behind, so in reality the $10 bet is giving you a maximum of $30 payout so you could probably fold and wait for a better spot. Only time I'd play on would be if MP was a very poor player, sometimes people make odd moves but I agree this looks like he had top set and it's a milking bet, I cant see any other hand a decent player would play like this. Think he'd have raised a straight on the flop, and there's no flush draw, so I assume he has a boat more often than not.
I definitely like the idea of playing straights carefully but I think this is one situation where you're heads up with a player screaming that he likely has a draw, and even if he doesn't it's no big disaster to put your stack in if you're splitting it with another straight. I think you have to raise this flop and discount the all-in player as a factor. It's now you vs MP and it looks like he's the one on the draw. You also have position, so I'd pot it again on the flop.
Monk
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