This hand came up today to bust me out in 4th place for the 5th time in a row, thought i played it pretty well but when i checked the numbers with pokerstove, it turns out im a slight underdog after the flop - he has 13 outs against me. After his small quarter pot bet which i read as a semi bluff with two overcards or a low pair, i put him all in, hoping he'll lay it down or that my nines will hold up. How would you have played this? Preflop shove?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t100/t200
4 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: t7320
Hero: t4560
SB: t4890
BB: t3230

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with
UTG folds, Hero raises to t1000, SB calls t900, BB folds.

Flop: (t2200, 2 players)
SB bets t500, Hero raises all-in t3560, SB calls t3060.

Turn: (t9320, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t9320)


River: (t9320, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t9320)


Results:
Final pot: t9320
SB shows Jc Qc
Hero shows 9s 9h

So according to Poker stove your a 51% to 48% favorite preflop and 44% to 54% dog on the flop. Its easy to second guess after the hand, more important during, and like tommyhawk said the preflop raise of $1K to win $300 on the bubble with the short stack might be a bit much. Hard to say without knowing what the average preflop raise was at that point.

I'm suprised he called a preflop raise of $900 with those cards and his stack and then all-in with a flush draw. I've seen it happen many time though, sometimes it feels like they always hit their flush or in this case the higher pair, and then get it rubbed in your face when he hits a second pair on the river, as if to say ha ha on you. Sucks man.

I tend to be more conservative in a spot like that, if he was loose aggressive (appears so) and you wanted to play the 99 hoping for a set then a 2x or 3x, BB raise preflop would work, perhaprs his aggressive would cause him to push harder and you could make a decision from there. You made it an incorrect call for him to chase by going all in, he was getting whatt? Like 2-1 and needed at least what 4-1 to call, right?

I'd say slow it down, based on that one play I'd say he's a donk, let them bust themselves out until you get the money spot, then push those medium pairs.

Curious - Anyone think he should have limped in?

ComicFx

Since when is calling 3060 to win 6260 a bad play with 2 overs and a flush draw? I call that all day long any day of the week. I'm 2-1 to hit my flush and Qs and Js might be outs. If they are (as in this case) I am a favorite wich makes this call mandatory.

I don't mind the big raise preflop either. QJ is exactly the type of hand you want to lay down here. Unfortunately BB got frisky and hit a nice flop.

On the bubble I'd certainly fold the overcards and flush draw. You don't know which outs of yours are clean. And even if all your outs are clean, you still will lose the hand 40% of the time. If I don't have to, I'll avoid those 60/40 battles, especially on the bubble.

Someone help me out with this so I know I'm working it out right.

The pot is 6260 after our hero goes all-in on the flop. The SB has 3390 left with a third of his stack in the pot already. He makes the call which is 2-1 pot odds or more accuratly 1.84-1.

Now the SB has 9 outs to the flush 4-1 or more accurate 4.7-1
and 4 outs to pair his overs or 10-1 or more accurate 10.75-1

So he's getting 2 to one pot odds and his most likely out the flush is 4-1 so thats a bad call, right?

Now factor in you're on the bubble and Hero's 5x BB pre-flop raise and I'm thinking the guy has a large pair, QQ, KK, AA maybe AK. Unless his play up to then was questionable and those types or raise's preflop meant something like medium pair. Even still the SB is behind.

Just trying to make sure I have the math worked out right here, nothing more. Perhaps the more aggressive approach (TripleB) is more appropriate, I do make a lot of 4th place finishes.

ComicFx

We are not quetioning his bad play are we? He began with calling preflop and went on.
Btw he has 15 outs ( 9 clubs and six overs ) and still not getting the odds to call and not...ah whatever we are talking party here and I don't know what limit.
He has to risk all on a 55-45 favourite but he doesn't know that.
If our hero had QQ or something what he is representing he was a huge dog.