Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

Button (t1703)
Hero (t2585)
BB (t1204)
UTG (t2508)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
UTG raises to t2508 (All-In), 1 fold

Ok. I'm chip leader over the all in guy by very little. He is a fish and has been playing basically every hand and he's done this all in move before. He's not a maniac, but this seems to be a steal to me, but it could easily be a big pocket pair too. No one is seriously short stacked. Can you really fold in this situation? I'm not in the money yet but if I win this, I'm in great shape for 1st.

What do you do? I'll post whether I called or not after I get a few responses.

Fold and forget about it. Your goal is to get ITM. Once there you worry about winning it. As a general rule I will go all in w/AK but not call an all in. In this case, with one player only having 4X BB, let him call - he is the one that is desperate - not you.

I would call if it was the short stack pushing... I might even call if it was the second-shortest stack pushing (probably not though), and I definitely wouldn't call with the other big stack pushing, even if he's done it before.

Forget big pocket pair for now. What if he has *any* pocket pair?? your survival chances are 45% for ITM. You're in good shape against Ax or Kx, but even if he has one of those hands he has over a 25% chance to win, meaning your survival is 75% even in the best case scenerio. Your odds are a little worse if he has QJ, etc.

Think about that for a second. Even if you got to pick out the hand you HOPE he has, you're gonna lose 25% of the time and not make the money. Adding in the possibility that he has a pocket pair of some sort, and I think that realistically you'll win 65% of the time and lose 35% of the time that you make this call.

Therefore, I would fold. I'm not OK with a scenerio where I'm fourth 35% of the time, third 0% of the time, second 20% of the time, and first 45% of the time, which I think is about what you'll end up with if you call. Your EV in that scenerio is 2.85x your buyin. I think that if I fold, I'll finish fourth 5% of the time, third 20% of the time, second 35% of the time, and first 40% of the time. That's an EV of about 3.40x buyin.

(note: EVs listed are gross, not net)

You can argue with my exact percentages, but I think they're pretty fair. In fact, I'm being generous about first place. You only win 65% of the time, so I'm saying that over 3/4 of the time that you make the top three with 5k chips, you'll win. That's almost certainly too high, and yet the figures still show that the ITM RULE is correct again.

You asked a good question though, this one looked like it might be an exception. However, the loss in EV by calling is over half of an SNG buyin, so it makes me shudder to think of the effects on one's ROI if one consistantly did this.

you don't mention the quality of the player in the BB, in these situations the short stack sometimes calls just because everyone else ig going all in. obviously the correct move foe theBB if you call is to fold everything but aces, either someone is going out or you have T50 left.

personally, i don't think calling with AK isn't particularly weak here, i think a min raise with a premium pair is more likely. i think you're up against a weaker ace or KQ, or, a small PP is a distict possibility, though in theory, less likely.

the blinds are very high for the stacks and if you fold you won't in the chip lead any more.

I'm calling, if this was the bubble of a MTT then i can understand folding , if, making the money is more important than winning the tourney.

molina

The BB was not playing solid poker at the beginning of the tourney and his stack was taking big swings. However, he was being much more conservative when he was in situations like this. He was the chip leader, then would double up the button or lose a small pot to the UTG. Before the blinds were high, the BB and UTG would limp their blinds and min bet and min raise to the river so some chips would get pushed around. So neither are good players but the BB is playing more solid than the UTG who is getting more lucky.

This effect anyone's decision? Will share the results later.

if i think the BB will fold everything other than KK or AA then i'm calling.

nashvegas' math is correct obviously but i thiink those arguments apply more to MTT's.
as long as the SnG buyin is not beyond a sensible bankroll then i say call, i'd fold 22-66 easy but AK isn't totally dominated, except by KK orAA which, i doubting. The blinds are so high that AK could be a gamble here, but if i win i know i'm getting 1st or 2nd place.

molina

Lets try this another way. If you call you are most likely in a coin flip situation at best. ANY pocket pair has the best of you. If you lose you have 80 chips. You have to double up twice just to cover the big blind and you only have two hands to do it in. Even if you accomplish this you will still be forced to play any hand dealt to you. Then you will have to double up 3 more times just to be where you sit right now against weak opponents.

If you fold 20 more hands you will still be in the game. Do you think all of the other three will still be there? Sklansky talks about the concept of the value of chips lost vs. the value of chips won. If you lose - you are out - you make no money. If you win you are guaranteed no better than third.

Do you realy want to put your tournament life on the line for a flip of the coin with no guarantee of any better result than if you do nothing?

Get ITM first, then go for the win. You are a good player against weak opponents - even if you are in second place when the table gets to three you have a better than 40% chance of winning it all and that is what you are giving yourself now with no guarantee of getting better results than folding.

As usual, the teacher (Nash) says it better than the student, but I think the +EV play is to wait for a better opportunity.

Ok, well i've waited long enough and appreciate the answers.

I called his all in. He had 87 offsuit. The flop was 59T. Turn was a Ace. River another 9 so I won the pot and then took those chips to win my first $20 SNG. I only recently moved up from the $10 ones because I hadn't played on in over a month. I've been finishing 2nd a lot (4 times out of the 13 played at that point) and couldn't get to first for some reason. Mainly that was due to losing coinflips heads up multiple times. Maybe I was a little blinded by the fact that if I won, I would be in great position to win.

I am confident in my heads up skills, especially with a chip lead, so using Nash's numbers, I would have put my percentages more at 35% 4th, 50% first and 15% second. I wouldn't have put my 1st percentage as high as 40% if I folded that hand so this could affect my EV to be closer.

I do see everyone's point about making the money first and that's how I've been playing them, but I just couldn't lay down that hand to that jackass as I watched him play throughout the tourney. Maybe that's wrong but it worked out in this case so I'm happy.

This is a situation that I think many people look back on with regret when they fold them, make it to 3rd or 2nd, but don't win. They look back at that hand and think what could have happened.

An interesting response, Brian.

You're sort of implying that you were not playing just for the maximum expected EV, you were playing to win the SNG, as you had not previously won one at this level. You also had an emotional stake in not letting the moron go on winning the blinds with nothing.

Both emotions make sense to me.

Nash & Sunbob are correct that these emotions may cost you some $$$ if you keep indulging them in every SNG. But I totally understand why they would push you to call in this situation. Plus, now that you've won one, maybe next time you make the higher EV play and fold.

I don't normally let emotions or ego get in my way but I KNEW this guys was pushing crap and could be a hand I was dominating. It had been 4 handed for a while and it was a tough battle to just try and survive until someone was knocked out with the players there because it would be harder to steal blinds since they call more. I felt the need to actually have a decent hand to do it because they were more likely to call an all in steal.

Well, since that win, i've only played one more SNG and I won that one too. Coincidence? Probably but it still feels good to knock out a jackass that was winning BS pots to build his stack.

I think I would have folded that easily because most like you arent that big a favorite no matter what he has.

You are a big favorite against a LOT of hands. Any Ace, any two broadway, etc.

I would call here.