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Do you fold the nuts here?

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Do you fold the nuts here?

Postby Hofstra » Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:03 am

$25 on pokerstars.
My stack: $20. Opponent: $28.

I have [Th][Jh][Ks][As] on the button. There are a few limpers. I call and 5 see a flop:

[4d][Tc][Qs].

It is checked to me and I bet the pot, since I think I have the best draw. SB and MP call.

Turn: [Jc].

Now I have the nut straight but there is a flush draw out. It is checked to me, I bet the pot, SB folds but MP min. raises. Now I am fairly sure that he has the same straight but is freerolling with his flush draw. Do you fold here? I called, but the river was a

[2c]

making the flush possible. Pot is about $15, and opponent bets $8. Clear fold, right?

Pieter
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Postby starstealer » Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:51 am

Unless the guy has proven to be a complete moron - then yes, I fold here. Even if he has - it would be borderline and I would only expect half the pot...
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Tue Feb 22, 2005 12:01 pm

1) You have a huge hand preflop; why on earth didn't you raise it? This is a premium holding, and you have the best position on the table. You have to raise here, make it the maximum too.

2) Flop I like your bet. If you had raised preflop you may be heads up here, or 3-handed, and your bet might've won the pot there and then.

2) Get all in on the turn. He might have a 9 card freeroll to his flush, but then again you definitely have a 4-card freeroll to your boat. And what makes you so certain he has the same straight as you? He may easily have something like K9 with a K-high flush and is getting over excited about his drawing hand, he may have you on a set with a weak straight draw or something on the flop when you lead out then for the pot. This is only $25 PLO, it is by no means certain he has the nuts simply because he min raised the turn. Get all in here and you don't have to make any tough decisions on the river. Worst that can happen is that you have a 20% or so chance of losing, a 10% chance of winning, and 70% chance of splitting. That is not a big mistake. By merely calling the flop, you gave yourself the chance to make a big mistake on the river by folding what might still be the best hand when a club comes. You most certainly, certainly do not fold on this turn.

Nut straights should be folded in PLO only really on the flop; the reason being with two cards to come and a flush draw available at this stage, anyone who re-raises you is either chopping a small pot or freerolling you in a big one. On the turn there is less reason to fold, but you should still be careful.

Here there's every chance YOU are the one with the only freeroll, or even you're the one who is winning. In any case, you can't really put him on a hand so I make the safety first move of going all in here.

4) On the river you have to fold, really. Looks like a milking bet to me.

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