hi

blinds 150/300, 4 players
after posting the BB i have 1700 chips left. UTG and CO fold, goes all in (640) and it´s 340 to call for me, pot odds are 4 to 1. i got J8o. i called there because i thought the pot odds would warrant it, but is correct to rely on pot odds on bubble play?
too often i lose in these situations, become shortststacked, lose the next all in and finish 4th. just as it happened here. i really consider folding now in these situations. what do you think?


***** Hand History for Game 3364268242 *****
300/600 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 19161699) - Fri Jan 13 14:25:46 EST 2006
Table Table 67273 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: brillan76 (1985)
Seat 2: Ivan_Drago45 (3370)
Seat 6: CrazyCuban (640)
Seat 9: WolfLarsen44 (2005)
CrazyCuban posts small blind (150)
WolfLarsen44 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to WolfLarsen44 [ 8c, Js ]
brillan76 folds.
Ivan_Drago45 folds.
CrazyCuban raises (490) to 640
CrazyCuban is all-In.
WolfLarsen44 calls (340)
Creating Main Pot with $1280 with CrazyCuban
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qs, 4d, Ts ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 2h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1280 |
Board: [ Qs 4d Ts 4h 2h ]
brillan76 balance 1985, didn't bet (folded)
Ivan_Drago45 balance 3370, didn't bet (folded)
CrazyCuban balance 1280, bet 640, collected 1280, net +640 [ Qh Kh ] [ two pairs, queens and fours -- Kh,Qh,Qs,4d,4h ]
WolfLarsen44 balance 1365, lost 640 [ 8c Js ] [ a pair of fours -- Qs,Js,Ts,4d,4h ]

It's gotta be a call. You have two live cards most likely, and are only really behind the AA--QQ and AK. KQo, his hand isn't 2:1 over yours. It's not much more than a coin flip. It's a go and you don't have a choice, actually. Folding is giving in and too weak.

CJ

Unless he physically shows me JJ+, I'm not folding.

Sunbob: Are you saying you would open-fold your SB there given the chip stacks? You likely have two live cards at least so you're only a 65/35 dog if he has a higher card. Add to this that some BBs here make the mistake of folding semi-decent hands.

J8 is a definite call. Even if SB only would push all-in with JJ+ and AJ+, you STILL should call!

[SNGPT]
Call hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q3o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J2s+,T4o+,T2s+,93o+,92s+,82+,73o+,72s+,62+,52+,42+,32 (90%)

The only time to fold J8 would be if you knew he ONLY would push with JJ+. That's far too narrow a range for a massively short-stacked player open-raising from the SB.

I'm with everyone here too, I call this with almost anything, as his push range will most likely be anything, he hit the flop with his KQ like you could have with your J8.

Ok, here is my thinking. It may well be way too weak/tight but here is my reasoning.

First of all, I see no reason to believe he will push here with “most anything”. If he has a hand worth less than J8 he should fold. He is in the small blind and has two free hands coming up. The odds say he will get a better hand. I will assume he has me beat.

You are on the bubble with only 4 blinds worth of chips left. Let’s assume the blind escalation timing is such that it isn’t going to effect the immediate play.

Goal #1 is to get ITM. As Nash pointed out in a post a while back that is when 60% of the money is distributed, that is the first step.

Now lets look at the situation. At the time of the decision ( the blinds have been posted) you have 4 orbits worth of chips left. Sixteen hands to find a winner. To your left has the same amount, but you have to post the last blind before him so he is one hand ahead of you.. Big stack has 7. Short stack has less than 2. Actually 7 hands to see. If you do nothing (fold) that will be the known outcome.

If you call, here are the possibilities:
1.You may win and then you have made step one. But I think we all agree that, at best, that will only happen 2 out of 5 times. If you win you now have 6 orbits. That, by no means, guarantees you finishing better than third.

2. But the most likely outcome is you lose. Now you are down to three orbits and now you are also desperate and you haven’t won anything yet.

If you fold you are still strong and the SB weak. You are strong enough that the equal stack won’t want to take you on without a real hand and the big stack isn’t too excited about taking you on either because you are strong enough to do him serious damage. The only one who will attack you is the SB. If you win, you are in the same position but the SB is gone.

But the most likely outcome is that you will lose and now you have won nothing and have significantly weakened your position. Now, you have strengthened the one person you had dominated. He is now essentially equal to you. You have weakened yourself to the point that the other two opponents now are less concerned about attacking you. You have gone from being the target of one opponent to being the target of, at best three, and most likely all four.

I think this is a clear example of a situation where the chips you stand to win are much less valuable than the chips you most likely will lose. This is why I am not impressed with the argument of pot odds in a tournament. In a ring game this may be an obvious call but in a tournament the chips you lose frequently have a far greater value than the chips you might win.

My play here is to go with the known outcome and wait for a better place. I have 16 hands to find that better place and the odds are with me.

If your unsure of what to do let pot odds decide. Harrington even says that in his book. If your playing to cash I think it's an easy fold. I'd rather go out 4th and have some chips to mount a challenge than to limp into 3rd with no hope of winning.

I don't know where you play CJ but on UB the rake is only 10%. If I make third place and win 20% that is an 82% ROI. If I am always getting third I am blowing away the rake. Of course I won't "always" finish third but my goal is to get this far at least.

Actually Howard Lederer said it better in an article he wrote for Full Tilt, March 14, 2005.

"But there is another not-so-obvious reason to play tighter earlier and looser later: The payout structure rewards tight play. Most SNG's pay 50% to first, 30% to second, and 20% to third. This payout structure dictates that you play for third. Why? Looking at the payout structure another way might help. Basically, the payout means that 60% gets awarded once you are down to three players, 20% gets awarded when you get down to two players, and the final 20% gets awarded to the winner. If you can just get to third, you get at least one-third of 60% of the prize pool, or 20%. You've locked up a profit, and you have a chance to win up to 30% more. It's only now that you're in the top three that your strategy should take an abrupt turn. Now it pays to gamble for the win. Let's look at the numbers again: 60% of the prize pool is off the table, and moving up one spot is worth only another 10%. But move up just one more spot and it's worth a whopping 30% extra -- that's three times more for first than it is for second. And with the blinds going up, gambling for the win is even more clearly the correct play. " (my emphasis)

On that $10 SNG, the house makes $10, you get $9, hence my saying that the house always gets third place money. Always.

50% ITM is pretty damn good. Better than my stats, that's for sure. I stand by it, although it's not the strongest stance I've ever taken. I think if you are only playing for ITM, you'll end up short more often than you would if you were looking for first. Any slight mistep, and you're going to see your bankroll shrinking quite fast. Even on the $10s, players are improving. It's getting much harder to slip into 3rd and play for the bigger monies. You have to win your way in.

There certainly can be differences in opinions, which makes this a good forum for exchanging ideas.

CJ

I know I am probably in the minority here, but I do not buy the 'pot odds demand a call mentality. While it more than likely is true if one plays an infinite number of SNG's the odds will pay you to call with 92o everytime a short stack is all in, I personally don't have the patience or money to play thousands of SNGs just to see if it will really work out. I prefer to prefer to believe the pot odds 'favor', not demand a call. That being said I think it probably is true one must be willing to gamble from time to time win the big prize in SNGs.In the future I will at least keep an open mind on both approaches but I will not put any money in the pot with 72,92,T4o, or other such horrible hands! Not one chip! J8o isn't too bad so probably not an unreasonable play to call in this case. I might have called here too.

my $.02 worth

Shoesnatcher