Hi. I play the $20 SNGs right now for 6 months now, doing pretty well. I've heard of people not playing the first 3 levels of an SNG, claiming that it marginally affects ROI. It would make sense considering you wouldn't bust out early on and you edge comes from mid to late game play.

I'm interested in what you guys think about this subject. Currently, I'm experiemnting with this method. It will be interesting how the new results will compare to my previous results.

See the stickied thread at the top of this page -- read at least the first message. In that, I outline a strategy that I think is clearly superior to just not playing 3 levels. You'll always do better if you just play ultra-tightaggressive, so clearly your approach is not optimal.

What you CAN take from that idea is that when in doubt early, fold. There is no reason to get in over your head in the first 3 rounds when you know that folding 30 hands to start the SNG wouldn't be all that bad.

I understand that folding all hands in the first 3 levels is not optimal. But how much EV are you really sacrificing?

If you could play 10 tables for 30 minutes at the PP 20s by this strategy you could actually play around 20 tables an hour. Would you not agree with this strategy you'd have a higher hourly rate and compensate for the lost ROI on each table?

Party Poker. <shudder>

Contrary to the people on 2+2 that think they can play every one the same way, it's just not possible. Well, you can, in some ways, because you always start every one with a short stack, but being profitable is something else.

There is something out there called the Independent Chip Model. It's a program that the guys on 2+2 have worked on which gives you a mathmatical model of expected chip value. Not being an MIT-kind of guy, I don't really understand all the ins and outs, but it appears that they believe in it like the Golden Calf. Perhaps at Party, it works more than it doesn't, but I would hope our guys want to learn how to play optimal poker, not just find a way to beat the rake at Party.

If you only play at PP, then I'd say folding the first 3 orbits would have very little effect against your EV. You just aren't playing for enough chips on any given hand to make the risk/reward ratio in your favor. Not sure if I'd agree that you have a great edge when it comes to later orbits as you're fighting against ever increasing blinds with a short stack. The only edge I'm sure of is the razor's edge. You cannot afford a mistake.

I know I'm not answering the exact question you're asking, but trying to answer the question you seem to be implying. If you're really determined, I'd suggest locating the ICM and doing your own calculations. Perhaps there is the answer for you.

Welcome to BTP.

CJ