How big of an idiot am I?

[Drade]

On a scale of 1-10, with 1 being not so much of an idiot, and 10 being Mike Matusow-ish, where does this play rank me? I feel sick just typing this.

.25/.5 PLO/8 on gaming club. I've run my $50 buy in up over $250 and have the table covered. One player, the key player in this hand, is the second stack with around $100. I'm dealt in the cutoff and limp behind a couple others. The button makes it 2.50 to go and the second stack calls from the SB, as do all the limpers. The pots around $18. The flop comes out . The 2nd stack bets the pot, folding off all the limpers to me, leaving myself and the pre-flop raiser, who had about $20 at the start of the hand, in. That's a pretty god flop for me, any low card gives me the nut low, any ace, 4,5, or 6 gives me the nut low and nut straight, though if it's a club it may not be good. I wasn't really sure what to do, due to the size of my opponents stack. If he'd been all in, I would have called easily, but since his stack was much bigger, I felt I had to play a little more cautiously. I decided I would flat call his bet, hoping the button would call also, and I could re-evaluate on the turn. I reasoned a call was in order, since I would likely face another pot sized bet on the turn, and if I hit, I'd be getting his whole stack, though I had resigned myself that if I bricked off on the turn, I'd have to fold to another pot sized bet. So far so good, right? The button did not oblige, so we were heads up going into the turn.

Anyway, the turn is where the nightmare starts. The turn was the . I've hit my un-counterfeitable nut low, but the flush is out. The pot's like $54 and he bets $10, leaving himself around $70. When he fired out a pot sized bet on the flop, my first thought was that he either had a set, or the nut flush draw, and he was trying to push the flush draws or low draws out. Whichever one it was, they've now both hit and I felt like his bet reaked of weakness. The pot size was right that I could raise him all in, so I did. My reasoning was, if he has a set, he can't call here. If he's terrible and does call, we'll split the pot, unless I hit my straight on the river, then I'll scoop. If he has the made flush, as long as his hand doesn't include A-4, we'll split, and if he has a weak flush, he may toss it. Well, he took a long time, but finally called. He had , I didn't hit my straight and he ended up 3/4 me with the nut low and a pair of tens.

So seriously, how bad did I play this hand? As bad as it is, I think it was far superior than my foe, but I digress. Had I just called his turn bet, I'm guessing we would have checked the river down and I would have lost far less. In hindsight, that clearly would hve been a better play, perhaps I could even fold on the turn, since his weak bet could easily have indicated nut flush-nut low and then I'd really be sick. The funny thing is, I built my stack up thru a few hours of very solid play, no real "moves" and then I lose a ton by getting carried away. I hate me sometimes.

Drade

[Felonius_Monk]

I dont think you played it too badly after the flop. I wouldn't have called the raise with A445 though, that's a pretty weak hand. You got more or less your perfect flop so, having called preflop I think it'd be pretty stupid to drop it there.

I think you played the turn how I'd have played it. You're not winning high, and it seems extremely likely you ARE winning low on your own, so a chop seems likely if you call/check it down. I like the raise here, his bet is extremely weak and of course he should;ve laid down (he must've been a calling station to call you down here, though, did you not have that read on him?). He "only" has $70 left, so the worst that can happen here if you move him all in is that you get 3/4ed and lose an additional $35 trying to buy a $65 pot in which he may well have every intention of laying down. Your big worry of course is if he holds nut low as well (relatively unlikely, but certainly very possible) in which case you are drawing fairly thin, or dead. Of course, if he's a calling station, you consider your options very carefully, probably call it down and take your likely 1/2 pot, but given this guy had a decent stack I'd credit him for being half reasonable and apply pressure on that turn.

Quick bit of maths here..... there's $65 in the pot. He has $70 left. If you raise all in and get halved (very likely) it's neutral EV. If you raise all in and he folds, obviously beating you for high with practically any 4 cards, you win the extra half of the money on the table that he would've got in a check-down split (so $64 instead of $32... $32 profit). If he calls and you're giving up 3/4 of the pot (probable if he has the nut low too) then you're losing half of what you put in, another $70 so half of that is $35. If you force him off nut low (not going to happen, but you never know...) you will of course win the extra 3/4 of what's in the middle, but we won't bother taking that into account. What we can take into account, though, is the possibility he has nut low also BUT that you have outs to win high (or that your 44 is winning it anyway), which gives you a bit more value if he calls you with the potential range of 3/4ing hands he might have.

So... 3 situations can occur if you raise
You are called and split with your security low. Makes no difference.
You are called and lose $35 to a nut low with a better high. However, you quite possibly have some outs for high yourself in this spot (unless he has the flush with A4) so the $35 "loss" in EV terms is perhaps a bit lower.... I will approximate it to maybe $30 or so, possibly even less.
He folds and you win $32 you wouldn't have anyway. Of course, there was the possibility that he had something like a bare set, you could've scooped if he called and thus the real EV win figure for you is slightly lower...

If you genuinely thought he was weak and was more likely to fold than to call then it looks a good bet to me. Your read was wrong, I think, not the bet. And even then, not too far wrong; you still had outs, and he still possibly should've considered folding, though I think ultimately he has to back himself to win half here and the pot was too big to pass with nut low.

I don't think you played this too badly, I could very well have done the same myself, but a crucial element in making the play is that the guy will toss his hand more often than he calls.

Remember as a quick rule of thumb - each dollar you put in and get quartered heads up, you will get half a buck back. You will lose half your bet. (therefore if quarter of the current pot is bigger than half the bet it's a no brainer; if he bets $50 into a $100 pot you have to call even if you think he's quartering you).

If you bluff/win a pot without showdown where you would've been halved if there's a showdown, you win half the pot.

Anyhow, I think your biggest error was playing that hand in the first place for a raise. You could fold the flop but for me that's a bit weak with a big stack, and if you play that hand you won't see a better flop, so....

OK, just my two cents on the matter!

Monk
xxxxx

[Drade]

Monk,

Thanks for the reply. A couple of points.

1. I didn't have any read on the guy. I had been sitting out for about 20 minutes prior to this hand, as I was in a multi and getting towards the money. When I came back, I noticed that this guy was there with a large stack, but I wasn't really sure where it came from, or if I had played with him before I sat out. We'd only played an orbit or so, so I didn't really peg him as being good or a calling station, this was really the first action I saw from him. That said, I played with him about an hour more after this hand and he turned out to be ok, not a calling station at all. I guess in this instance, he just assumed I had a made flush with no low or a non nut low and that we'd be splitting.

2. I agree that my hand is no monster, but I don't think it's horrible to play, especially in this situation. I was in late position behind some limpers. The button raised and everybody between us called. My call was going to close the betting and I was getting like 7 or 8 to 1 on my call. Coupled with the fact that my hand can flop well, a button raise after limpers at that level is almost always A-2 or AA, thus making my hand easier to play on the flop since I can be reasonably sure what I'm up against, I think I was correct in calling the raise.

[cholo loco]