Pushing draws

[Anders]

Hi

Lately I've found that I've been pushing my draws a lot more than I used to. Im starting to think this isn't optimal strategy at all. See below for an example. All feedback appreciated obviously.

Paradise Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $103.60
MP1: $154.30
MP2: $113.50
Hero: $127.75
CO: $35.00
Button: $32.00
SB: $117.20
BB: $175.50

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises to $5, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: ($35.5, 7 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $36.5, 2 folds, Hero raises all-in $122.75, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls all-in $62.1.
Uncalled bets: $24.15 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $232.7

Is calling the turn to see a safe (non-boardpairing) turn card better? How would you guys play it?

[Kuso]

i like this line.

if you make the board a two-flush board, then i would want to see a turn card.

run some twodimes versus a set (try 99 and 55 and different side cards) and see what pops up. you're a little bit of a dog here to most sets (depends on side cards), so it really comes down to fold equity and your confidence that villain holds a set. you're close with a lot of 2pr hands (again, depends on side cards), and you might even be up against a lesser str8 draw.

[Aisthesis]

Well, I have (had--see following) been playing this about the way you did but have had absolutely horrible luck with it. (lately it seems I can never make my draws but they always make theirs...)

Anyhow, all complaining aside, I just don't think you have enough hand to raise here. It may not be bad at certain tables, but 99 is the logical betting hand here, and it's never going to lay down. If your opponent is a little looser, then you might be up against 55, 44 or even 95, but I'm not sure you have any real fold equity against those hands either, and you're significantly behind to all of them. This is a highly multi-way pot where it's not at all unlikely for someone to have hit the stone cold nuts with 99

Basically, you have 9 outs and you have TP, but you're also behind to an overpair, who should but may not lay down.

Had it been checked to me, I definitely would bet it, but I've had too many troubles with pushes like this in order to want to advocate it.

Currently, I'm thinking you may want to push on top set or on a minimum of 16 outs in pots like this, but not on a 9-outer. I also think there are other factors you have to consider even on pushing top set or 16-outers. Even with a 16-outer, top set is never laying down unless he's ultra-WT.

Anyhow, on this one, I think this play becomes profitable only with some major fold equity. As I say, I've been playing it a lot like you did here, but my wraps are also looking really bad in my database--like, seriously in the minus on almost all of them, over and against JJ-AA, which seem to be accounting for almost all of my winnings...

[Kuso]

[Anders]

Yeah I'm not happy with how I played that at all. FWIW, I was up against 95 (yuck). I suppose the downside of raising preflop is that everyone will refuse to believe you have anything else than AAxx. The reasonable play would have been to just call (of course) and hopefully get some callers behind and build a larger pot. However, with 13 outs (not 9, Ais; 4 treys, 3 sixes, 3 sevens, 3 eights = 13 outs) and a minimum of FE this play hopefully isn't horrendous, which really is what I needed some confirmation on. Thanks for the input guys!

/Anders