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Hours needed for accurate winrate and bankroll?

Postby idog519 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:21 am

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Postby Rhound50 » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:56 am

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
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winrate accuracy

Postby geewhiz » Mon Feb 28, 2005 9:42 pm

It's more than you'd think. It really depends on your standard deviation.

If you winrate is 17/hour, I'm guessing your std. deviation is in the ballpark of 60-70.

If this is the case, after 600 hours your estimate is within 5-6 of the true mean - your winrate is between $12-22 (a 95% confidence inteval)

How many hours you need for an "accurate winrate" is basically how accurate you need to be - after 1,000 hours you will be +/- 4 away

after 2,000 hours you will be +/- 2.5 away

If you want to really get this right, you can estimate your standard deviation (which is much easier to get a good estimate of than winrate) The confidence rate will be +/- (2*stddev/(hours^.5)) With your winrate, I'd be surprised if you std. deviation wasn't right around 60-75 though.
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Re: winrate accuracy

Postby Gregor » Fri Mar 04, 2005 8:52 am

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