Sets in Omaha

[briachek]

[JSBC]

Not sure I can agree. How can you be sure that a K would be in someone else's hand? Counting outs is obviously a theoretical measure.

[Rhound50]

Well Brian I am glad that my whining and bitching makes you think. A lot of times I really don’t mean it to be whining, it’s a measure for me of how bad/ good I'm running but yes sometimes it is whining. Overall I am right about 11% flopping sets in a little over 25k PLO hands. I'm not sure how many of those are in raised pots or not. The only way I know how to check that number is to go back and count by hand and I really don’t feel like doing that for 25k hands.

As for theory I am torn, my mathematical side says that the 4 cards in the opponents hand should still be considered random. Though the poker side of me says that calling a raise with KK or QQ there is going to be a higher likelihood that the raisor has a K in his hand. I am not a PLO expert by any stretch of the imagination, but I think that assuming that one of your cards is dead is going to far. The other thing to consider is if you decide to just smooth call a raise with KK and the flop comes KQX and the villain is playing AKQ something you are much more likely to get paid off.

[Aisthesis]

[teknipper]

[Aisthesis]