PLO $25 - Nuts against the two best players

[Stoneburg]

Seat 1: Jimmyjohn ( $40.54 )
Seat 5: G0DHATESME ( $81.54 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $25 )
Seat 6: jorritano ( $59.45 )
Seat 4: LudaRus ( $14.25 )
Seat 7: gerben79 ( $26.10 )
Seat 8: peon29 ( $21.25 )
Seat 2: Lukashenko ( $26.78 )
Seat 10: dittos46 ( $15.55 )

Dealt to Hero
dittos46 folds.
Jimmyjohn calls [$0.25].
Lukashenko folds.
LudaRus folds.
G0DHATESME calls [$0.25].
jorritano calls [$0.25].
gerben79 calls [$0.25].
peon29 calls [$0.15].
Hero checks.

** Dealing Flop **
peon29 checks.
Hero checks.
Jimmyjohn checks.
G0DHATESME checks.
jorritano checks.
gerben79 checks.

** Dealing Turn **
peon29 checks.
Hero bets [$1.45].
Jimmyjohn folds.
G0DHATESME calls [$1.45].
jorritano raises [$7.25].
gerben79 folds.
peon29 folds.
Hero ???


GHM has been crushing the tables (35bb/100) for 500+ hands, he's a bit loose (vpip 35) and somewhat aggressive. Jorritano is a TAG (22/5) who has been absolutely obliterating the tables for 120 hands at 90bb/100.

[Kuso]

i recommend not reading too much into the bb/100 stats with so few hands. bad players can run hot and good players can run cold over such a small range of hands. i start looking at that stat at around 1000 hands, and i gradually get more confidence in it as it moves up towards 5000 hands. the number can still change quite a bit with over 5000 hands, but usually you have a pretty good idea if the player is a loser, a winner, or average.

for the hand, well, you have no redraws. there are really only about 8 cards that you want to see -- deuce to five in hearts or spades. as such, i see this as a raise (to isolate and clean up some of your outs) or fold (you're likely getting freerolled) type of hand. i think it really just boils down to how likely you think jorritano has the same str8 with a redraw. i know some players against whom i will always jam this and others against whom i will always fold.

i'm going to guess that GHM either has the same type of hand as you (str8 w no redraws), a broadway draw, or a flush draw. he'll probably lay down the last two if you raise (if he's good). i don't think he has the str8 w redraws because he probably would have raised (again, if he's good).

anyway, if you really think jorritano would only make this raise if he had the nuts and a redraw or a HUGE draw, then i'd probably fold. that being said, there are very few players at the 25 level who get that much respect from me (like five or ten).

[Stoneburg]

It's not just the stats, I've been watching them, they seem *really* good for this level. Definetely better than me.

I'm fairly sure GHM has one of the flush draws, probably the club because he often bets his draws in position on the flop.

[Ojingo]

[Felonius_Monk]

Given that jorritano WILL bet the river (a large bet, too, compared to the money in the pot now), you'll have to fold 40% of rivers (any club or diamond you just can't call, and you may get scooped on a few of the rivers you might consider calling, like a J, Q, K or board pair, which would be a disaster), and you're only playing for half the pot, AND you may already be quartered by a low and another straight, this looks like time to .

Ahhhh, mother of cock - I just realised this isn't high low.

Well, in that case, you might as well shove it here I guess. You're probably up against a straight plus a redraw of SOME kind, but the other guy might just come along on a skanky or dead money draw, the raiser might just have the same hand or you might just even be ahead once in a blue moon. The third guy REALLY complicates matters because normally the best play heads up is to call and bet the max on ANY river (reasoning being that it looks like you have a draw when you just call, so he'll call you down with some weaker hands (in the unlikely event he has something like a set) if the river blanks, raise you with the same straight in which case you lose nothing, BUT you might push him off the same straight if the board pairs or shows a flush which he doesn't have). However, with the third guy in (and i'm guessing he'll call his draw with two players putting a bet in and him closing the action) it becomes impossible to do that as the cards you want to see (drawing cards that would allow you to bluff) will likely have connected one of your two opponents.

So in summary, it's a pretty shitty spot. I don't see there's a lot of difference between pushing, calling and folding here. Make the stacks bigger and it leans towards a fold OOP.

[Stoneburg]

Well I eded up folding, as did GHM, and I didn't feel too bad about it. I'm pretty sure jorritano had the same straight as me so best case scenario we two split GHM's money, assuming he calls, but there are sooooo many cards I don't want to see on the river.