Raise the Turn?

[briachek]

***** Hand History for Game 4305986689 *****
0/0 Omaha Game Table (PL) - Thu May 18 23:38:52 EDT 2006
Table Cards Speak (No DP) (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: buckeyebub ( $135.63)
Seat 2: TEXVIP ( $112.16)
Seat 3: bigjohn5766 ( $338.18)
Seat 4: cigoe ( $91.50)
Seat 5: fatmoose2 ( $48.50)
Seat 6: cubanacan ( $100)
Seat 7: briachek ( $97.50)
Seat 8: mianic06 ( $0)
Seat 9: ThisIsIt9 ( $202.21)
Seat 10: elsbetla ( $100.25)
ThisIsIt9 posts small blind (0.50)
elsbetla posts big blind (1)
cubanacan posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to briachek , , ,
buckeyebub calls (1)
TEXVIP folds.
bigjohn5766 calls (1)
cigoe folds.
fatmoose2 folds.
cubanacan checks.
briachek calls (1)
ThisIsIt9 folds.
elsbetla checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : , ,
elsbetla checks.
buckeyebub checks.
bigjohn5766 bets (5.25)
cubanacan folds.
briachek calls (5.25)
elsbetla folds.
buckeyebub folds.
** Dealing Turn ** :
bigjohn5766 bets (15.20)
briachek ???

Opponent is loose (90%+ vpip) but passive with only .7 aggression of so. Obviously he isn't very good and will take most hands to the end as long as he doesn't meet too much resistence. I have a feeling my hand is good here as a lower two pair is possible but so is 55 and 99. Either way, i got a ton of outs with both flush draws, top two and gutshot broadway. Do you raise now which could possibly scare away a lower two pair or raise now and be willing to get it all in if he pushes?

[TomG]

I would throw out a raise. Maybe not a max raise, but ~$50 so that if he calls you'll easily be able to get the rest of your stack in on the river if you improve further. Unimproved, you can hopefully check it through on the river. Of course, if he pushes we're calling. Sound good?

[stickdude]

Raise now, call his push, and spike the on the river.

[Ojingo]

[briachek]

[Ojingo]

[briachek]

well, i figured he was enough of a goof to pay me off on river or even bet into me a final time. if i make my hand, i raise him, if not, i call him expecting my hand still to be good enough of the time.

briachek calls (15.20)
** Dealing River ** : [ Qh ]
bigjohn5766 checks.
briachek bets (44.10)
bigjohn5766 calls (44.10)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $131.60 | Rake: $3

he had [ 6d Qc 5s Ah ] So only top and bottom pair that turned into top two.

[Aisthesis]

First, I think you should pretty much always raise a hand like that in LP PF.

I would also have been very inclined to raise the flop in most cases.

Then on the turn... I think he'd have to be a super-donk to pay off clubs unless he has some smaller ones himself. Spiking an A should pay you off as well as the diamond draw, though, particularly if you flat call.

If you raise the turn, I think a thinking opponent would almost have to put you on AT with a club draw. I thus see him folding his A9 or A5 there and raising any set, to which you're not far behind but a little. While your hand is very strong here, the main problem I have with raising is that you fold all hands that are behind but get action only from hands where you're behind. I guess if he's an ultra-donk who'll still call with A9 or A5, then, ok, go ahead and raise. Otherwise, I really prefer a flat call--although, as noted, I think it would have been desirable to get a lot more in earlier.

[Felonius_Monk]

Looks really opponent specific, if you read was right (as the result suggests) that he'll pay off on most rivers, then maybe the smooth call is best. However, 9 times out of 10 I'm raising here. I think you're actually ahead of a small set something approaching 55:45 here, providing all your other outs are live, in a spot where you'll pay off many misses but not get paid off on all your hits - so it's a good spot to get more money in for both reasons. If you're up against an oppo who might fold a small set it's even better, likewise it's great if he's on a draw as (obviously) he won't pay you off if you both miss on the river.

Of course, this hurts you if he has 2 pair and folds to the raise, but you possibly wouldn't have got much out of him on most rivers (flushes etc) and the rivers that will pay you off big (boat over boat pretty much, unless he has a flush draw on the side and you hit flush over flush) are rare.

The salient point is this - you are well ahead against his likely range, and a slim fave over his (almost) best-case scenario hadn. MOST players will fold when you hit, and make you pay off some more money on the river if you miss and they're ahead, so you might as well pay that river money now and thus get paid off in advance if you hit a big but threatening river card.