2 agressively played draws (PLO 100)

[Aisthesis]

I'm going to put these 2 hands in separate posts within this thread.

Hand 1 I like my play with set and flush draw. My opponent here is fairly nut-peddly, but it seems to be a common mistake at the $100 tables to raise nut straights with no redraws (at least this seemed to be the trend tonight--I saw it VERY frequently).

Villain was whining after the hand and said I should've just called. I definitely disagree. Looking this up on the odds calculator, I'm a 2:1 favorite (with 7% or so splits in case we both end up with the nut straight) despite the fact that he has one of my spades. What is true is that neither of my draws are to the nuts (except quads), but I put him squarely on the nut straight and figure most of the time that my draws are going to be good. I think the advantage to pushing this draw is that (if I'm ahead, which I'm not if he has nut spades or straight with set, but I don't think I'm in really HORRIBLE shape in either case. What he can't have is nut straight with set AND flush redraw) he lays down whenever I hit if I flat call. I think 2:1 favorite is plenty for a push and in fact a pretty huge edge in PLO.

Anyhow, here's the hand:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
7 players
<a href="http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter">Converter</a>

<br><strong>Stack sizes:</strong>
Aisthesis: $172.65
UTG+1: $66.75
MP1: $79.70
CO: $126.25
Button: $98
SB: $99
BB: $210.10

<br><strong>Pre-flop:</strong> (<em>7 players</em>) Aisthesis is UTG with :ts :jd :js :4c
Aisthesis calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

<br><strong>Flop:</strong> :qs :ks :jc (<em>$5, 5 players</em>)
SB, folds, BB checks, <span style="color: raisecolour">Aisthesis bets $4.75</span>, <span style="color: raisecolour">MP1 raises to $17</span>, <em>2 folds</em>, <span style="color: raisecolour">Aisthesis raises to $55.75</span>, <span style="color: raisecolour">MP1 raises all-in $78.7</span>, Aisthesis calls.

<br><strong>Turn:</strong> :3s (<em>$162.4, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $162.4</em>)


<br><strong>River:</strong> :8s (<em>$162.4, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $162.4</em>)


<br><strong>Results:</strong>
Final pot: $162.4

MP1 has ThTcAs2c

[Aisthesis]

Hand 2:

Here I've only been playing at the table for about an orbit, so my reads aren't terribly solid. Villain seems fairly decent, though. Hasn't done anything stupid anyway.

My play on this one I view as much more controversial. I raise the flop to rep AA, which I don't think villain has in light of my own hand. What I do have is TP with open-ended straight draw as well as flush. I think I have some fold equity here. When I get a call, I'm almost certainly my opponent has 99, possibly A9. I think he'd clearly push AA.

On the turn, I don't think I have much fold equity, but now I have 2 pair, which I don't think are good but which should give me a couple of extra outs (a 2 if he has A9, and an A if he has 99). I still have my open-ender, but now I also have both flush draws. This should be approaching 20 outs. The reason I bet here, though, is that I'm pretty sure he'll push to a check anyway, and I'm definitely calling. So, I figure that if I have any fold equity at all, it's better for me to bet. I suppose, really, that the validity of this play depends on whether or not he's actually going to push. It seems to me rather bizarre, in any case, to check that turn with AA, so I just can't imagine his not assuming he's ahead and betting.

Here's the hand:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $8.65
UTG+1: $83.25
CO: $190.80
Button: $93.25
SB: $60.55
Hero: $115.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with
UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets $7.6, SB folds, Hero raises to $30.4, UTG folds, Button calls.

Turn: ($68.8, 2 players)
Hero bets $65.8, Button calls all-in $60.85.
Uncalled bets: $4.95 returned to Hero.

River: ($190.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $190.5)


Results:
Final pot: $190.5

Villain has 9h9s3s4h

I'll have to look up the odds on the turn as point of interest. Would just like to know how far behind I really was here (his 2 spades certainly don't help).

[Aisthesis]

Hmmmm... wow!

Despite the 2 spades I'm actually favorite on the turn, believe it or not: 52.5% for me, and 47.5% for villain.

Let's see... I have any A as outs (2), 7 spades, 8 diamonds, plus 4 additional straight outs for a total of 21. And I guess there are only 40 cards left in the deck, so that seems about right.

[Spellbinder]

[briachek]

[Ojingo]

Hand 1. I think it's too easy here for your draws to be tainted. You were in the best case scenario, but on that board it is all too likely that he has a hand like AKQT, taking away a bunch of boat outs. Also, you're not drawing to the nut flush. Combine these two, and I'm not too happy about the hand, especially out of position. (Incidently, I fold this in EP.) If you had the nut flush draw then fine, pound it, but here I'd be much more conservative.

Hand 2. Same problem really. You're not sure what your opponent has here (his call could very well mean a draw that dominates you). Turn is great help, but what are you going to do on a brick? This opponent seems to be of the sponge type, and you don't have a lot of folding equity. Even though you are ahead mathematically, I think I prefer a check, to keep more options open.

One possible reason for your plays could be that you think you don't get enough action on made hands, in which case I see this as good advertising. But in isolation I prefer a more conservative line in both hands.

[Aisthesis]

[Felonius_Monk]

[Aisthesis]

Agreed. The confidence in my read has to be low here, and I'm no doubt projecting from a lot of typical stuff I see from others in this game.

I also see your point regarding the pairs, but I'm no doubt influenced here, too, by peculiarities of the Stars $100 game, where I'd say 90% of the players (excluding chronic bluffers) are only capable of raising on made hands, hence making them nicely readable. I'm working on getting myself out of that rut--as represented by these hands.

Anyhow, I also agree that pairs come in very handy when you're in doubt about a(possibly dominating) draw or made hand from your opponent, although I think (?) in most instances that a card in your hand that pairs ON THE BOARD is typically worth more than an unimproved pair within your hand. In the worst case, it takes away one boating out for a set, and in some cases, it can give you significant extra outs.

Just as example, say you have A567 with suited A and are drawing to straight and flush on a K58 board. If your opponent has K8, you have a lot of extra outs with your 5 as long as he doesn't have an A as well, and if he has a set, at least you take away one of his kill outs.

Anyhow, thanks to all of you guys for the feedback! When I posted, I had my own doubts about #2, but after looking at the odds in light of the way the board developed, I started liking it a lot better.

[Ojingo]

[briachek]

[Aisthesis]

[Felonius_Monk]

[Felonius_Monk]

[Ojingo]