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Too routine

Postby Aisthesis » Sat May 27, 2006 3:16 am

I think I left some equity at the table on this one by raising the nuts. The raiser in this hand is quite LAG (he raised KQ44 a few hands before and called a pot-sized re-raise). Hence, my lack of much hesitation in playing this hand to a raise. Not a great hand but ds and right in the sweet spot of nice wraps with some top 2 value.

Here's the hand:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $19
UTG+1: $162.60
Hero: $95
MP2: $18
CO: $146.35
Button: $40.15
SB: $34.50
BB: $125.55

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP1 with [Kc] [Ts] [Js] [7c]
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: [Qc] [9c] [Ac] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $7.6, Hero raises to $30.4, SB folds, BB raises to $53.2, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises all-in $93, BB folds.
Uncalled bets: $39.8 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $122

The issue here is what to do after the check-raise. Having the nut flush, I almost reflexively re-raised pot, thinking that the only hand he could possibly have was top set.

However, if he folded top set there (or for that matter any set), he made an even worse play than check-raising it, having to call only $40 for all-in to the river in a pot of $120.

Anyhow, here was my thinking after the hand was finished: In order to make the check-raise (for which he really needed my hand, but he did it), he has to have either a lower flush of some sort (possibly with straight flush draw, but since I have Kc, he can only have 1 out there) or else a set. If I push, he calls with set and may lay down the lower flush, although I was surpirzed at the laydown being already in that deep. But the lower flush is the hand I REALLY want to stick around, since he has to be drawing dead unless he has 2 pair to with it.

The risk involved in a flat call here is that I'm also going to have to lose my stack if he does have a set and the board pairs. But I figure I'm losing no more than I would have by pushing, since the set calls anyway. My plan would be to call all-in regardless of turn--i.e., even if the board pairs. If he checks a paired board to me, I check back at him. And if he checks the river yet again, I'd go ahead and push.

If the turn is a blank and he checks, then I probably go ahead and push myself. Having called rather than raised, I think I look a lot like a non-nut flush there, or at least as much like it as possible. And a paired river might also shut down my action.

What do others think of this suggested line?

I just don't see that I lose any more against the set than I would by pushing immediately, and I think I have good chances that way of getting his whole stack with a bad flush.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Sat May 27, 2006 4:52 am

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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