Most marginal set I've played in a long time.

[Dumb Snowman]

Ok this hand is more weird than anything.

I open raise with and get raised by a player in LP. He's been semi-tight so I'm assuming Aces, Kings, Queens, or AK

Anyway, I call, hoping to set up. Flop comes down which is just ugly.So I decide to check-raise all in, and he calls and shows aces, I quad up on fifth and take it down.

But after the hand I started thinking.

If the only hands he has here are Aces, Kings, Queens, and AK, then I'm only ahead 50% of the time. Not only that, but if he has aces there, he has 6 outs so he outdraws me a decent ammount of the time. AK has 4 outs, and some runner runner boat possibilities, so he'll outdraw me a bit. But when they have KK or QQ, I'm drawing to exactly one out.

Now I know I'm not gonna fold a set on the flop any time soon, but what do you guys think about this? Is this one of this situations where folding a set is +EV or am I missing a big piece of the puzzle?

Just an interesting hand. Discuss

[mike_m235]

I had a marginal one too...playing 55 deep stacked at NL100...A54 flop. We start betting...I raise him, he calls, then leads the turn which is a blank...at this point I KNOW he has aces...and I get all in anyway. He had Aces. There was nothing else he could have.

In your situation there are a lot of things he could have that you beat. I played that exact hand the other day at NL200 except I had QQ. The guy got all in with me and turned up AK.

[NorthView]

You're a 62/38 favourite against those hands.

Nice pot! (jolly good show old chap)

[iceman5]

[Dumb Snowman]

[NorthView]