Wrap vs. wrap

[Aisthesis]

Villain is pretty tricky and selectively aggressive. All I know when I move in is that he does have some kind of hand, either a strong draw or at minimum some kind of 2 pair. With this action, I almost think any 2 pair is possible because he figures to be up against the raiser and simply wants to take it down (it's probable that he would have slowplayed top set--perhaps not just a check-call but probably not such a big bet). I think my fold equity is low, since top 2 from this player is likely to be accompanied by a draw in a raised pot. Opinions?

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $90
UTG+1: $47.30
Hero: $103.50
MP2: $62.95
CO: $137.65
Button: $105.55
SB: $30.95
BB: $66.15

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP1 with
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button raises to $3, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: ($16.5, 5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button bets $15.7, UTG raises to $50, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises all-in $100.5, 2 folds, UTG calls all-in $37.
Uncalled bets: $13.5 returned to Hero.

Turn: ($206.2, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $206.2)


River: ($206.2, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $206.2)


Results:
Final pot: $206.2


Villain had JsTc9d8h

[Felonius_Monk]

I think you can call and safely fold if the board pairs the turn. Which it did.

A lot actually also depends on button - how loose is he? I ask because you really want him to fold mid/high flush draws here. If it's the case that you believe he will, pushing may actually be slightly the better option. Without checking an odds calc, I think you're about even money (possibly a few % favourite) against a bare set here, and so the raise is good if there's a good chance you clean up your flush draw by doing so.

[Aisthesis]

[Felonius_Monk]

[Felonius_Monk]

There's an additional situation when keeping that last bit of cash back can help you, though it is VERY rare, it's very +EV when it happens.

If you're first to act, and there's (say) $20 left to bet into a $150 pot or something, and you've been check-calling all the way, you should still keep the cash back on the turn. If there's a possibility your opponent doesn't have a set (i.e. is betting a big wrap, similar drawing hand to yours etc etc), rather than making a pointless turn shove which is certain to be called (and thus be -EV if you can't even beat A high), you KEEP the $20 to the river and THEN push it, regardless what hits.

If your opponent had a big wrap (presumably with a bigger high card than yours, or a tiny pair on board) there's a good chance he'll fold it. This only needs to happen one tim in 7 for the play to be +EV (pot odds on the bluff) so it's a MUCH better use of your last $20 than pushing it on the turn, when it's basically going in with no fold equity and clearly behind your opponent.

Not a very frequent situation, but using it in the right spot and against the right opponent it'll win you a big pot maybe once or twice a year. You need a spot when an opponent is playing aggressively but not NECESSARILY with a made hand, you need to be first to act, and you need to be up against someone who can fold a total no-hoper like bottom pair (even for a small bet). You also need to have a hand that has absolutely NO equity if you miss (ace high, K high, small pair, something like that) and which is pretty sure to be behind whatever your oppo has even if he's just on primarily a draw. It also helps if you've shown at least SOME aggression at some point (i.e. you bet the flop and got raised, you raised preflop signifying that you might have a high pair etc). It's certainly better than just pushing when you're behind on the turn, as you lose the same amount either way but at least waiting for the river there's a slim chance you can win the whole pot with the worst hand.

You would make an analagous (but slightly different) play with the nut straight on the turn when someone bets into you with almost certainly the same straight - instead of just pushing your last raise in with the nuts, and probably getting a split, you wait for the river then push WHATEVER hits (again, you need to be first to act, one of the rare occasions you want to be OOP in PLO). If a flush or open pair comes you may get your oppo to fold a tying hand (you both still have the nut straight) and thus win the whole pot for the same price you'd have paid on the turn to split it. Of course, if he has a redraw and hit it, you now look stupid for betting into him and losing BUT a) you'd have lost the money anyways if you pushed it in on the turn, so you've lost nothing and b) you get a little bit of image value from making what looks (at face value) like a dumb bluff after calling with the nuts. It's a pretty standard play in PLO but a lot of folks don't know about it.

[Aisthesis]

[stickdude]

[Felonius_Monk]

[Aisthesis]

[GodlikeRoy]

When there is a ridiculously small amount to call on the end, say $5 into a $150 pot, i'll sometimes make the call just to be able to see my opponents cards (even though i may only have 7 high) if I think i'll be able to gain some information about his play and use it to my advantage in the future.

[Aisthesis]

I agree, although he can also see yours.

But there, too, you get the same effect if you push the rest in with your draw. And the only situation I can think of where you can't do that is if you were the one betting into HIM with the draw, and he just flat called. Otherwise, if they bet, say, $50 into a $50 pot, and you only have $55 left, you can always push the rest.

I have had that happen a few times--like where I have two flush draws and a straight draw on the turn (something like 20 plus outs) but still miss on the river.

That's probably also an argument for betting less than pot in that situation (like half of stack depth perhaps?)--in the hope of getting raised, but if not, you can still at least lay down if you have absolutely nothing.

[Felonius_Monk]

I think it happens infrequently enough that it's not THAT important, but I think Roy's point is a decent one, paying $5 into a 150 pot or something just to see your opponent's hand might not be a bad investment (if he's playing a lot of hands and you're reasonably confident he'll stay, or you'll see him again, and if the hand has confused you so far).

I think 10% is about right, Ais, if there's any possibility at all your oppo holds a draw of some sort. There are some occasions when your hand is so bad and ALL your oppo's range beats you that you even have to fold for that amount, I guess. There's also occasions where you can call down with as little as a tiny pair for a sizeable bet. I think that river play when your hand is very weak is something that's very situational in PLO. If you think TOO deeply about it you'll end up arguing yourself into all sorts of crappy calls, but now and again there comes a time when you have to make your oppo show down a winner when it's possible he could be shoving a missed draw.

Bare in mind that if an opponent has an average or "possibly winning at showdown if you have nothing" hand he'll usually check it down. It's the monsters and the garbage that gets bet on the river in a scrappy pot. I reckon check-calling bluffs is an enormous part of your profit against vaguely decent players who don't stack themselves on garbage hands on the early streets.

[Aisthesis]

Monk, I wish you'd put your two big posts here in some section where they could be read and re-read. I just carried out my own mental note when you made them to re-read them again in a few days.

In doing so, I came up with a somewhat related question, based on a casino hand I had from a few months ago (2/5 PLO) and which involves being on the other end of minimal stack-depth in huge pot. Here's what basically happened: I'm potting all the way with a set (I'm pretty sure it was top set but can't remember for sure). As this game was very aggro, that also got us to a roughly $900 pot on the river, where the flush card hit, and I had something like $70 left.

With this particular opponent, whom I had noted as major flush-chaser right when the game started, I knew essentially 100% that he had made the flush on the river, but in this $900 pot, I still called the last $65-$70. Good play or bad?

[Felonius_Monk]

[Aisthesis]