PLO $25 - NFD + Gutty facing a big raise

[Stoneburg]

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.80
UTG+1: $77.35
MP1: $14.72
MP2: $3.70
Hero: $64.96
CO: $23.15
Button: $33.24
SB: $31.95
BB: $24.15

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises to $1.35, CO calls, Button calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: ($6, 4 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $5.7, CO calls, Button raises to $28.5, MP2 calls all-in $2.35, Hero calls $22.8 (pot was $48.25), CO folds.

Turn: ($71.05, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.4, Sidepot 1: $55.65)
Hero checks, Button raises all-in $3.39, Hero calls $3.39 (pot was $74.44).

Flop raiser is one of the muppets from the "bottom two" thread, he's 70/20.

[briachek]

[Aisthesis]

[Stoneburg]

Yeah.. I noticed after I posted that:
1. It's not the nut flush draw
2. I am blocking my own outs

Now... what about if we assume that it IS the nut flush draw and I'm NOT blocking myself? Since that's the hand I thought I had when I played it.

[Aisthesis]

Well, since it's all-in, there are 0 implied odds. I think you're actually just a hair off in odds with 13 outs and even with the nut flush draw you only have 12--also assuming no one takes away any of your outs, which probably isn't the case.

I'll have to run this to make sure, but I really think I'd need some small extra to call even with 13 (like runner-runner flush draw or a big pair that could outrun top set--which actually does add two outs).

I'll have to check the odds calculator to see where you're at with your 12. I think it's -EV HU vs. TT with no other diamonds at all (the Td is going to be an irrelevant out anyway) and no 8, but it's probably pretty close. I just like ot be +EV playing for stack if at all possible.

[Aisthesis]

You're a bit better than I thought with nut flush draw. Running AdJdKs9s against TsTh2s2h, it's 62-38, which imo means you have to call.

I want at least 65-35 here, while 67-33 is break-even to the river.

If we change it to TT2s2d, it becomes 64-36, and if we make it TT2d3d, it's 67-33.

While I don't really expect diamonds in the set hand, I do expect some of your outs to be gone--at least 2 here, with shorty in the pot. So, I still think it's pretty marginal.

If you don't mind, I'll take the liberty of semi-hijacking with my big hand of the day, where I figured I had 20 or so outs and was ahead of the set. Note how despite my apparent outs, so many of them are gone that I really wouldn't have pushing equity here. I think a 3rd player in the hand usually means that you need to reduce your own "outs" calculation substantially. Anyhow, here's the hand:

Raiser has ThTc9s9d
Caller has JcJdQh5c

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $99.85
Hero: $103.65
MP1: $9.85
MP2: $115.50
MP3: $98
CO: $32.45
Button: $87.35
SB: $34.50
BB: $68.65

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises to $3, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: ($18.5, 6 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $15, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero raises to $77.6, MP1 folds, MP2 raises all-in $112.5, CO calls all-in $14.45, Hero calls all-in $23.05.
Uncalled bets: $11.85 returned to MP2.

Turn: ($249.25, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $106.85, Sidepot 1: $142.4)


River: ($249.25, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $106.85, Sidepot 1: $142.4)


Results:
Final pot: $249.25


Equity here:
me: 40%
JJQ: 7%
TT: 53%

[Stoneburg]

[Aisthesis]

That's not 3:1 but more like 2.3:1. 3:1 would be $20 to call and $60 in the pot.

[Stoneburg]

Yeah I know, I mix up swedish odds and american/english odds, I meant 1/3 not 1:3.

[Felonius_Monk]

[Stoneburg]

Yeah I thought I had to fold too, I just didn't, which turned out to be good.

He didn't have the set, he had top pair and a wrap with . River was the and I scooped.

[Felonius_Monk]