Those three hands...

[Stoneburg]

KK with top set against two straights, all-in on the turn.

Pot odds: 22.86%
Equity: 22.2%
Result: Won this break even proposition, +$46.25


Top two + OESD against bottom set, all-in on the flop.

Pot odds: 45%
Equity: 47%
Result: Won this slightly +EV proposition, +$24.48


Flush draw + gutshot against top pair + wrap.
Equity: 47%
Pot odds: 32%
Result: Won this clearly +EV proposition, +$41.59



These hands just made me think about luck and variance. This session was asbsoluetely great, I picked up 10 buyins for a ptBB/100 of 131.6 . Still, it could easily have been an average or even bad session had I lost some or all of these. Even though the plays are all either +EV or pretty much EV neutral, I will only win all three of these about 4.9% of the time. I've been making a killing at $25 PLO my first 5.3k hands, at 28.23ptbb/100, but I have to ask myself... how much of this is positive variance?

I wish there was a program combining PT HH's and two-dimes to calculate your "equity result" of all these sort of hands. That way you'd know how much is luck or bad luck. How much would I have won per hand if I had played them a thousand times (ie: how many Sklansky bucks are they worth). Anyone more mathematically gifted (*cough* Aisthesis *cough*) able to calculate that?

Either way... lucky, lucky, lucky...

[flexus]

[Stoneburg]

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players


Stack sizes:
Hero: $20.77
UTG+1: $30.35
MP1: $18.03
MP2: $18
MP3: $24.50
CO: $28.03
Button: $23.50
SB: $20.25
BB: $36.39

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with
Hero calls $0.25 (pot was $0.35), 5 folds, Button calls, SB raises to $1.15, BB folds, Hero raises to $4.25, Button folds, SB calls.

Flop: ($9, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8.55, SB raises all-in $16.1, Hero calls $7.45 (pot was $33.65).

Turn: ($41.2, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $41.2)


River: ($41.2, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $41.2)


Results:
Final pot: $41.2
Hero shows Ac Ah 4d Jc
SB shows Js Jh Qs As



pokenum -o ac jc ah 4d - as qs js jh -- 3s 5c th
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 3s 5c Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Jc 4d Ah 703 85.73 106 12.93 11 1.34 0.864
As Qs Js Jh 106 12.93 703 85.73 11 1.34 0.136

I actually thought it would be more like 5-9% since I'm actually holding one of his two outs. Guess the runner draws make up for that. Still pretty annoying since it was the last hand and I had just crawled out of todays hole.

[briachek]

[Stoneburg]