PLO8 Deep HU w/ Top Two.

[Phil153]

I thought this hand was interesting. Am I good enough against his range to make this turn bet? Is it a case of win nothing/lose the max or should I be putting pressure on? No reads at all, no stats, player is Scandanavian though so I'm guessing a standard TAG

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players

MP1: $233.81
Hero: $255.10

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.8, MP1 raises to $15.2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $49.4, MP1 calls.

Turn: ($102.8, 2 players)
Hero bets $99.8....

Thoughts?

[Kuso]

i think this is one possible good line. i've certainly played hands like this before, but recently i've preferred to play big pots with big hands. furthermore, i try (not always successful) to exercise pot control when i'm OOP).

anyway, i'm not sure if this hand qualifies as "big"without having reads on villain's range. as such, i'd probably call the flop raise and re-evaluate on the turn, looking to CR a lot of the time.

as the hand unfolded, i think the turn is not easy to play OOP. i'd probably check-call flop and donk bet this specific turn. you usually only get repopped by KKxx, A2xx suited to diamonds, A2PP that has made a set, or a donkey.

i'm interested in hearing what you think the best line would have been if it wasn't the one you took.

[Felonius_Monk]

I think after he just calls your re-raise on the flop the turn bet is more or less a must. Hard to see him having anything that beats your 2nd top 2 pair here, and if he has one of the low sets perhaps he's rethinking his plans and you have some significant fold equity with a pot bet which will cover the fact you're putting money in as a dog. I think if he had a hand that really had you crucified, like a set plus nut low draw, he's not just calling that flop. I figure against his range you're probably somewhere in the 40-55% range with some fold equity (if we assume a fairly narrow range of hands he'll raise on the flop including a variety of drawing hands with A2, a variety of wraps around the 45, all sets and most 2 pairs; if he is typically aggro and bumps a few other things I guess you might infer that you're liable to be a reasonable favourite over his range).

Not sure about the flop re-raise but I don't think I mind it too much. I think perhaps a flop CR would be better.

[Kuso]

i forgot to add what i would do "as played"... and monk pretty much said it all.

i do know people who will slowplay top set on a non-flush board, but i don't think that's the norm, and you still have outs to chop or scoop.

[TomG]

[januarymute]