$1/$2 PLO FD + Gutshot

[davebreal]

I considered a checkraise on this flop, but decided to go with the conservative route... thoughts? No reads.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (9 handed) from (Format: Bet The Pot)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($80.85)
UTG ($297.10)
UTG+1 ($473.10)
MP1 ($33)
MP2 ($325.10)
MP3 ($149.60)
CO ($207.40)
Button ($165.80)
Hero ($219.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , , , .
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, MP3 calls $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($10) , , (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $9.5, MP3 calls $9.50, Button folds, Hero calls $9.50, BB folds.

Turn: ($38.50) (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP3 bets $36.6, Hero calls $36.60, UTG calls $36.60.

River: ($148.30) (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP3 bets $101.5 (All-In), Hero folds, UTG calls $101.50.

Final Pot: $351.30

[Felonius_Monk]

[Aisthesis]

I prefer a fold here.

You really have only one nut out, namely Kc, which may well be in the caller's hand. I'm also pretty willing to believe that an offsuit 3 is good, and maybe the flush, too, but the flush I view as less certain.

I think there are better spots.

[Felonius_Monk]

Surely an offsuit 3 is the nuts on the turn? I was talking about the flop call - the turn call is obviously pretty dreadful.

[bassline]

[quote="Felonius_Monk" I was talking about the flop call - the turn call is obviously pretty dreadful.[/quote]
Could you explain why?

in order to call a pot-sized bet three-way you need 12 outs (25% chance of making your hand on the next street) so that you breakeven in the long run.

In this case you call the flop bet assuming you are behind an have outs to improve,
namely 12 (9 clubs that make your hand, 3 GutSs).
You have ~25% chance of making your hand on the turn. You breakeven with your call . Fold.

On the turn nothing has changed except
that now you are not closing the action and are facing a pot sized-bet 2-way for what you need 33% (15 outs) in order to break even. The call loses money. Fold.

Off course there are some factors that change your EVs calculated above.
A) Knowing the tendencies of both opponents involved (Implied odds )
B) The way the hand played out
C) Your gambling mood
D) others

[davebreal]

I have a gutshot on the flop also.. not just the turn.

[bassline]

The version 1.03 of my post includes the Gutshot draw on the flop .

[Felonius_Monk]