Is this as easy a decision as it looks? $600 PLO8

[JDLush]

Villian (FDUKE121) seems solid, have not caught him getting out of line yet. I got all in with him about 15 hands ago and had him stacked till he squeaked a split out on the river. This is my first time playing PL$600 so I have been more passive than I should be if I had to guess. I have been caught raising twice, both times with AA. I had wanted to raise this but misclicked and called instead. Not a normal EP raising hand, but it's easy to get away from when it misses.

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha High Low Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
9 players


Stack sizes:
BurdTurglar: $491
UTG+1: $585
MP1: $222.20
MP2: $535.90
MP3: $699.16
CO: $1342.24
Button: $184.36
SB: $594.06
BB: $824.91

Pre-flop: (9 players) BurdTurglar is UTG with
BurdTurglar calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($33, 5 players)
BB checks, BurdTurglar checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets $10.83, CO folds, BB calls, BurdTurglar calls, UTG+1 folds.

Do you raise here? Or take the cheap shot at your flush?

Turn: ($65.49, 3 players)
BB bets $20, [color=#cc0000]

OK, what's your play?

[Felonius_Monk]

I don't think this is a raising hand in EP.

I call the turn, I doubt you have much fold equity for a raise and you're going to be behind to whatever he has. He's given you nice odds to call though. I don't see him betting out into a large field on the flop (even weakly) with a hand he's willing to lay down to a fairly small turn raise when nothing much changes, but I could be wrong I guess...

[Kuso]

yuck.

i agree with monk that this is usually not a raising hand from EP. it COULD be if the table is incredibly weak-tight pf and you can buy the pot on a janky flop with a CB, but even then...

anyway, the small bets from MP3 and the calls from BB suggest that at least one of them is drawing to the low. if i had to guess, i'd say that MP3 is on a low draw and BB has a set or top 2 pr.

anyway, i'd call -- you have decent pot odds and some interesting implied odds possibilities. one, of course, is if a low flush will pay you off. another is if you can put the squeeze on two A2s if a low club hits. trying to play power poker here in an attempt to make them fold could backfire as a low draw plus a pair and/or a danky flush draw could very easily call, and a big set will make you play for your stack.

the weak turn bet by BB might be seen as weakness by MP3, but given MP3s weak flop bet, i doubt he'll raise.

i love it when people underbet.

[edited because i was tired and was using new math to calculate odds]

[bassline]

[JDLush]