donking the flop with aa

[dropthe72]

I think I screwed this one up with a halfpot bet on the flop instead of a potsized bet...

MP2 has a VPIP of 29.76 and aggression factor of 2.88. WtSD is 25% and W$SD is 50%.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $.25/$.50 (10 handed)

Button ($20.45)
SB ($29.50)
BB ($58.75)
UTG ($60.05)
UTG+1 ($43.55)
UTG+2 ($30.65)
MP1 ($101.45)
MP2 ($60.30)
Hero ($73.80)
CO ($44.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with , .
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1.5, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, MP2 calls $3.50.

Flop: ($10.75) , , (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $5, MP2 raises to $10, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($30.75) (2 players)
MP2 bets $45.3 (All-In), Hero ?.

Who likes the call? Who likes the fold here?

[dropthe72]

[wreck27]

[Spank_her_Pair]

I call. He is likely bluffing often enough to make the call. Why would he overbet the pot on the turn. If he hit that flop he has a monster hand. The flop min-raise is scary though. So i dont mind a fold at all.

[iceman5]

I wouldnt check behind on that flop. Its too drawy. I would make my standard CB which would be about $8. If he calls I check behind on the turn.

The more I think about it, a check behind on the flop isnt that bad since you have the . It makes it look like you have AK and you make money off of a middle pair and dont get check raised off of AA.

As played, with a min check raise and a turn push, I give him credit for a monster and I fold. He has to know you have a big hand with the preflop reraise, but he doesnt care. I think he either has KK or has you buried.

If it was 6 max or if he had bad stats, I would probably play it differently, but I think in this case, I let him have it.

[pokerchip]

though it is quite possible the villan is holding a queen, the raise preflop may show he has something big (AQ? suited possibly?). That said, i make similar raises with suited connectors such as 89. His call to the reraise preflop makes perfect sense...i'd take my chances with an 89s sort of hand (J10s?). the minraise makes it seem like he has a queen, but i put him on a draw...call...and hope for a blank.

[dropthe72]

Well... I folded.

My reasoning was that my hand was relatively transparent. My own stats, VPIP 16.24 and PFR of 8, and my history of not reraising light, makes it pretty apparent (so I think) to any decent player that I have a big pair. Knowing this, the min reraise and the push on the turn seems to indicate to me a Q wanting to be paid off. I could be thinking on a tight weak level though, unknowingly, which is why I posted this hand. I think I probably made a good fold, as my opponent asked me after I folded, if I folded an overpair. It seems that if he put me on an overpair, his actions are quite explainable.

Just my opinion, though I could be wrong.

[dropthe72]

3x bb raise... seems like kq is highly possible.

[T-Rod]

I like to check behind on that flop for two reasons:
1) You are probably way ahead/way behind so betting isn't going to accomplish too much.
2) The flush is far less likely since you have the A[c] AND its a raised pot. It's VERY rare to see people raise SCs.

So I want a little pot control. I start betting on the turn.

Your fold was good though.