Watching the first circuit event on ESPN

[kennyg]

One of the first hand... Townsend is dealt QQ in LP and raises it up. He gets two callers.

FLOP is [Jh][Ad]

It checks around to Townsend with the queens, who checks behind.

TURN
[Jh][Ad]

Prescot has [7h] for the flush draw in EP. he opts to bet this street for 12k. MP folds... Townsend with the QQ calls.

RIVER
[Jh][Ad]

Presecot hesistates (good for him) and pushes.

Now because ESPN poker coverage blows.. I don't the size of the preflop raise or the pot before the allin. However.. I'm just gonna take a guess and say the pot is $36k... sounds about right.

ok so the pot is 36k... Prescott pushes for $140k. A massive overbet.


This bet makes no sense. Obviously he's representing the diamonds... but not one in their right mind with diamonds.. would ever make this bet. Theres a lesson here.

Kennyg lesson:

If on the river, they make a bet that makes no sense whatsoever.. they are bluffing. A set doesn't bet like this, a pairof aces doesn't bet like this, two pair doesn't bet like this.. the straights missed, and a flush value bets.

I see this constantly at the 5/10 ring tables. remember this shit the next time you're playing.. because it's awesome to know. It takes some balls.. but make the call.

The queens folded BTW.

[MTPaid]

[tinodwg]

[GodlikeRoy]

I completely disagree. A move i've been seeing more and more is where a villian overbet pushes the river with a very strong hand, hoping his opponent will view it as a bluff and call with a wider range of hands than if he had made a moderate sized value bet. It only has to get called one every few times for it to be a more profitable bet than a value bet too. He could easily play a hand like the exact same way.

[Allstar7]

[quote="Roy"]I completely disagree. A move i've been seeing more and more is where a villian overbet pushes the river with a very strong hand, hoping his opponent will view it as a bluff and call with a wider range of hands than if he had made a moderate sized value bet. It only has to get called one every few times for it to be a more profitable bet than a value bet too. He could easily play a hand like the exact same way.[/quote

Coundnt agree more roy. its the push the nuts move. love it.

[MTPaid]

Just watched the hand.

Blinds 1500/3000 - No mention of antes but I'll assume they are about 300 each with 10 players, putting 7500 in to start.

Townsend actually limped with his Queens making the pot 10,500

Prescott called making it 13,500

Prescott made it 12,000 on the turn which Townsend called making the pot 37,500.

Prescott pushed for what must have been about 147,500 making the pot 185,000.

I can't say what I think about the move because I know nothing of the prior history of the table. I think the presence of the Ace out there would make me not want to call more than the flush because as you said, this is an overbet for a flush. Also, since Townsend originally limped I don't think there is any way that Prescott has him on a starting hand that strong either. I wonder what range Prescott put Townsend on to make that bet.

Roy, I too have seen this bet a lot by players with a the flush, both by idiots and by players who want it to be seen as a bluff. Without the A out there it makes my call a bit easier though.

[kennyg]

[RuiCosta]

I agree with Kenny G - 9 times out of 10 people are massively overbetting pots is a complete bluff (thats me Playing 50NL and $10 SnGs) I have made some ridiculous calls just because someone has made an over the top bet and most times it will win.

On the other hand I like to make the same move with the nuts - but usually against a calling station...ie...The board is AA255 and I have an A - villian was a donk ATM and I bet 10x the pot (expecting a split or fold) - he called with only 45

I guess it pays to know who pushes with the nuts or a bluff, but if in doubt I would always suspect the bluff.

All that said - would still find it hard to call with QQs on that board for that much money that early on in a tournament that big. In my $10 SnGs I would call just to prove my read is right - If it was worng I make a note against the player that an overbet is the nuts.

[Xaston]