This is a hand from the $10 rebuy from tonight. We're in the 3rd hour with blinds at 300/600 with a 50 ante. I've got 21.9k in chips, which is below average for the tournament, but about middle of the pack on my table. The player in 3rd position overall is sitting in the 1 seat - I'm in the 9 seat.
The big stack has shown some horrible play so far - basically playing big-stack poker and has gotten pretty lucky. If he had avoided some of his absolutely horrible ones (calling an all-in for about 20% of his stack with bottom pair and an inside straight draw for instance), he'd be an absolute monster. Anyway - he and I have been in a few pots together and he's been able to take the most of them because I've been completely missing.
In this hand, there's two limpers to me - one is a new player to the table who has 17.7k and is in MP, and then the player on my right, who has an even stack to me with 21k. The second limper has shown to be a calling station in most cases even calling down an AKJ flop with pocket eights. He once had 40k or so before he doubled me and another player up.
It gets to me on the cutoff and I pick up AJo. I put in a raise to 2400. The big stack instantly calls and the player on my right also calls. The flop comes out QJ5 with all diamonds and I hold the ace of diamonds. Player on my right checks, so I put out a feeler/blocking bet of 2400. The big stack calls (his signature - I'll push on the turn play...) and the player on my right folds.
Heads up now - there's 14k in the pot and I've got 17k left in my stack. What to do?
The turn is an offsuit deuce. I push. He thinks about it for a while and calls. What do you put him on?
He had 56s (hearts) for bottom pair. I spiked an unneeded ace on the river - and double up to 48k.
I know his play is horrible - but its more of a question to me on what he has here.
I'm pretty certain he does not have a flush - but even if he does - I have outs to get him. If he does have a naked queen - I still have outs to take him down. So to me - it is mostly a question of whether he has AQ - in which case my only hope is to get the flush. Given his prior play - it is certainly possible for him to call off portions of his stack with a bad queen or jack (or apparently a bad 5...).