Bubble Play in Stars Satellite

[Big_Leon]

I've been playing some satellites to the Sunday Million Guarantee and WCOOP with great success lately. Here's the setup:

Recently I played in a $15 rebuy for entry into WCOOP event #2. 114 players, top 9 get $530 entry and 10th place gets $285. So basically there were two bubbles, at 11-handed and at 10-handed. We are down to 11 players and playing hand-for-hand on two short tables. I'm severely short stacked but there's another guy at my table with less than the BB. Basically he's not playing anything and going to blind out waiting to see if someone is stupid enough to bust before him. He finally busts in his BB and now we are down to 10 (2 5-handed tables).

I've got a bit more than 12k chips, blinds are 2k/4k with 200 ante. I'm guaranteed $285 but I really want the $530 entry. There's another shorty at the other table with basically the same amount of chips as I have but he effectively has position on me because I will bust from the blinds before he will. I've also been watching his table and he's folding everythng and seems to be waiting for me to bust out or win a hand before he moves...at least that's what I'd do in his position. So anyway here was a big decision hand for me and I'd love to get some thoughts from others on what to do give all the details provided.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t2000/t4000
(Ante: t200)
5 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: t59040
CO: t39683
Button: t66212
SB: t169743
Hero: t12265

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with
UTG raises to t12000, 3 folds, Hero ???

Is this strong enough 5-handed to go for it? Obviously if I call I have to show down the best hand. I'd have to think UTG has something reasonable here, pair, big Ace, or at least 2 broadway. Should I fold this and continue to wait to see if someone else busts first or if I can pick up something stronger?

[low dough]

It is possible that UTG has nothing, and is hoping you are not going to call, which means you are likely to be ahead. (I would tell myself this as I called.)

After paying your BB and ante, you only have ~8000 chips left.
7 more hands you will be all-in without any choice as to what cards you will have.

The way you explained the stiuation, you have to move in.
The other short stack should be outlasting you by folding, and you would surely do the same in his shoes.