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Naked flush draw

Postby MacAnthony » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:51 am

Mac - Getting quoted in sigs since 2006


<emmasdad> pulling an ED = getting wasted and firing off 1/2 the BR???
<Trump34> yep
<emmasdad> i have only done that 3 times in a year and a half. . .
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Postby Kuso » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:55 am

this hand desciption is confusing and lacks fome important details -- could you post a HH?
wwcrd?

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Postby JDLush » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:17 am

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Postby MacAnthony » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:34 am

Mac - Getting quoted in sigs since 2006


<emmasdad> pulling an ED = getting wasted and firing off 1/2 the BR???
<Trump34> yep
<emmasdad> i have only done that 3 times in a year and a half. . .
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:35 pm

Well, personally, with $30 buyins I'd prefer to play $25 or $50 PLO, I just think it's TOO short to play $100 properly. At least make it 50 or 60 or something.

You said it's $22 to call the re-pop... In that case I guess there was $20-odd in the pot, plus the $22 re-pop and then SB repops,putting in $22 effectively?

Meaning you're putting in $22 to a potential pot of $85-odd? In that case, the odds are quite close. If we assume your opponents both have sets and have two of the flushing cards between them (probably a reasonable assumption) then you have somewhere in the region of 25% of the equity; as you seem to be putting in about 25% of the cash, it's about neutral EV. If they don't have a heart between them your odds improve, if they have more than 2 hearts between them your odds are reduced, equally if one of them doesn't have a set your odds are reduced (they're "blocking" each others' set redraw outs).

Ideally you need to give a few more details, though, as others have said - as little as a couple of cards around one of the cards on the board, a gutshot straight draw, an overpair to the board etc etc can give you considerable equity (10%+) in PLO, even if it seems unimportant (example: board is T[h] 6[h] 2[c] and you hold A[h] J[d] 9[h] Q[s], you have only the naked flush draw but the 9 J Q around the ten gives you a ton of backdoor ways to make a straight, even if at first they don't seem to be relevant cards). The easiest way to figure out your odds in any pot if you have the hand history (or a rough idea what cards you had) is to play with an odds calculator; i like http://twodimes.net/poker/ personally, remember to set the game type to omaha obviously. Playing about with different situations, changing the cards around in your and your opponents' hands and running a load of hypotheticals is a great way to get a "feel" for the odds and relative power of different hands in various omaha situations, which it's essential to have to be a winner in any omaha game. If you have to try to work out odds at the table you'll find it basically impossible without a rough grounding and "feel" for it - you should be able to estimate with a 5% or less error rate your equity in pretty much any given situation, without having to do any mental arithmetic or searching.

So, in summary, your answer is that, like many spots in PLO, your equity here is fairly neutral either way (most likely) and it's hard to imagine you're winning or losing more than maybe $5-worth of equity regardless of whether you call or fold. You shouldn't lose any sleep over these sort of marginal situations really, though you SHOULD aim to be on the right side of the odds wherever possible and to make sure you're aware of your likely odds when they come up.

Hope this helps! Keep posting.
The Monkman J[c]

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A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby MacAnthony » Mon Aug 07, 2006 6:48 pm

Mac - Getting quoted in sigs since 2006


<emmasdad> pulling an ED = getting wasted and firing off 1/2 the BR???
<Trump34> yep
<emmasdad> i have only done that 3 times in a year and a half. . .
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:01 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby MacAnthony » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:59 pm

Mac - Getting quoted in sigs since 2006


<emmasdad> pulling an ED = getting wasted and firing off 1/2 the BR???
<Trump34> yep
<emmasdad> i have only done that 3 times in a year and a half. . .
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Postby pnutbutr » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:29 pm

Getting 3 to 1 here with 2 streets to go I'd push. What sense does it make to fold when you're stack is so short and you can get 2 callers on a draw to the nuts?
^ No, I didn't limp with that hand.

$2
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