$100 nl 6-max (PS) - AQ hand

[Jarren]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players


Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG calls, Hero raises to $4, CO calls, 2 folds, BB raises to $7, UTG folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: ($22.5, 3 players)
BB is all-in $37.6, [color=#cc0000]Hero ??

[Stoneburg]

Super easy call. If he has a set you win 1/3 of the time so it isn't very -EV. If he has AA or AK it is very +EV to call, if he has somthing stupid like TT or AJ you're actually ahead.

KK, JJ, 44 = 1/3 chance to win
AA/AK = 45% chance or so
TT/AJ = Favorite
Bluff = Duh.

Unless you're like 80% sure he has a set, which is impossible to be, you're gonna call. The way he played it seem a lot more like AA, AK, TT or JJ than a set so I wouldn't just call, I would be HAPPY about it.

[Twelver]

[Jarren]

[T-Rod]

[PokerWolf]

[Stoneburg]

Yes the set is -EV but for several reasons:

1. You can't hit a pair or running trips/two-pair to win.
2. You have one less flush out on the turn and two less on the river if you miss
3. If you hit your flush on the turn he can boat up on the river

You're actually a 55/45 favorite over QQ here since any heart (9 cards) and any Ace (3 cards) and any T (3 cards not counting the twice) gives you a total of 15 outs.