A flush draw is much less likely IMO since I hold the
, but of course not impossible. I figure him for either a K (most likely), a medium pair like 88-JJ, or a set. I think he will bet those hands most of the time here and if that is what he has he's only got 5-2 outs so no huge disaster giving him a freebie.
If I bet out I think a weak K might fold and a medium pair will definetely fold (of course I will go broke against a set here anyway).
Contrary to popular opinion I don't believe bad players are more likely to fold to a check/raise than a bet, quite the opposite, once they get check/raised they tend to get stubborn. Maybe they feel like they've been tricked and get pissed off, maybe they think it is a bluff, maybe they just can't go from 'bet' to 'fold' without passing 'call'.
He thought for a while and called with
. River bricked and I stacked him.